SOL has upgrade expectations, so why am I still not rushing to chase it? A look at three factors together
👀 SOL’s story is still intact, but short-term buyers need to show evidence. At 21:42 Beijing time on October 5, Binance perpetual mark price was 120.32, down 1.11% over 24 hours. For now, I’m leaning toward weak sideways action; a stronger outlook depends on whether price can reclaim 121.03.
📈 Technicals: The hourly candle closed at 120.29 as of 21:00, below the MA20 at 121.03; RSI was 42.2, the MACD histogram was -0.227, and the latest candle’s volume ratio was 0.62x. Taken together, these signals suggest the rebound is not yet strong enough. The lower Bollinger Band at 120.14 and the low from the previous 20 hours at 119.91 are the first support zone to watch. ATR is about $0.68, so a stop that’s too tight could get swept by volatility.
📰 News: Based on the reported figures compiled by Farside, ETF net inflows from September 28 to October 2 totaled just $800,000, versus about $188.1 million the previous week. Flows are still net positive, but momentum has cooled significantly. On October 2, the Foundation still described Alpenglow as an “upcoming upgrade.” Faster speeds and improved reliability are expectations; it would be inaccurate to say it has already gone live on mainnet.
⚠️ Liquidation data is based only on a historical snapshot from 16:20 on October 5, not real-time data! Datawallet’s Binance 24-hour model, starting at 121.71: on the way up to 124.14, the cumulative modeled short liquidation intensity along the path was about $61.43 million; on the way down to 119.28, the long-side figure was about $25.50 million. At that time, the figure above was about 2.41 times the one below. But the current price has moved: these are absolutely not current liquidation balances, and reaching those prices does not mean liquidations are guaranteed.
🎯 My plan: I’ll give more weight to a bullish outlook only if the hourly candle reclaims 121.03, the volume ratio is at least 1.5x, and price holds on a retest. First targets: 121.93–122.27. If 119.91 gives way and the rebound fails to reclaim it, I’ll treat that as a continuation of the downtrend. Open interest by coin is up 0.01% over the past 4 hours, and the funding rate is 0.0011%—not enough on its own to support a short squeeze.
💬 Would you wait for a high-volume reclaim of the moving average, or first wait to see how price reacts at support?
There’s a SOL market link below to compare against the range shown in the chart.
Sources: Binance perpetual candlesticks/mark price/OI; Farside https://farside.co.uk/sol/; Solana Foundation https://x.com/SolanaFndn/status/2105699876675940384; Datawallet historical model https://www.datawallet.com/zh/liquidation-heatmap/solana
Methodology: Prices are in USDT; volume ratio = the latest closed candle’s trading volume / the average of the previous 20 candles; MACD histogram = 2×(DIF−DEA); RSI/ATR use the Wilder method; OI is measured in coins. The 1.5x volume ratio is a condition to watch, not a backtested threshold. ETF figures for October 5 have not been reported; do not treat them as zero inflows. Figure 1 shows the latest closed hourly candle. Figure 2’s liquidation data is an old 16:20 snapshot, summing only price bins from a single time slice; it is not market-wide data or actual liquidation amounts, and should not be used as a basis for current positioning or directional bias.
For discussion only; not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
👀 SOL’s story is still intact, but short-term buyers need to show evidence. At 21:42 Beijing time on October 5, Binance perpetual mark price was 120.32, down 1.11% over 24 hours. For now, I’m leaning toward weak sideways action; a stronger outlook depends on whether price can reclaim 121.03.
📈 Technicals: The hourly candle closed at 120.29 as of 21:00, below the MA20 at 121.03; RSI was 42.2, the MACD histogram was -0.227, and the latest candle’s volume ratio was 0.62x. Taken together, these signals suggest the rebound is not yet strong enough. The lower Bollinger Band at 120.14 and the low from the previous 20 hours at 119.91 are the first support zone to watch. ATR is about $0.68, so a stop that’s too tight could get swept by volatility.
📰 News: Based on the reported figures compiled by Farside, ETF net inflows from September 28 to October 2 totaled just $800,000, versus about $188.1 million the previous week. Flows are still net positive, but momentum has cooled significantly. On October 2, the Foundation still described Alpenglow as an “upcoming upgrade.” Faster speeds and improved reliability are expectations; it would be inaccurate to say it has already gone live on mainnet.
⚠️ Liquidation data is based only on a historical snapshot from 16:20 on October 5, not real-time data! Datawallet’s Binance 24-hour model, starting at 121.71: on the way up to 124.14, the cumulative modeled short liquidation intensity along the path was about $61.43 million; on the way down to 119.28, the long-side figure was about $25.50 million. At that time, the figure above was about 2.41 times the one below. But the current price has moved: these are absolutely not current liquidation balances, and reaching those prices does not mean liquidations are guaranteed.
🎯 My plan: I’ll give more weight to a bullish outlook only if the hourly candle reclaims 121.03, the volume ratio is at least 1.5x, and price holds on a retest. First targets: 121.93–122.27. If 119.91 gives way and the rebound fails to reclaim it, I’ll treat that as a continuation of the downtrend. Open interest by coin is up 0.01% over the past 4 hours, and the funding rate is 0.0011%—not enough on its own to support a short squeeze.
💬 Would you wait for a high-volume reclaim of the moving average, or first wait to see how price reacts at support?
There’s a SOL market link below to compare against the range shown in the chart.
Sources: Binance perpetual candlesticks/mark price/OI; Farside https://farside.co.uk/sol/; Solana Foundation https://x.com/SolanaFndn/status/2105699876675940384; Datawallet historical model https://www.datawallet.com/zh/liquidation-heatmap/solana
Methodology: Prices are in USDT; volume ratio = the latest closed candle’s trading volume / the average of the previous 20 candles; MACD histogram = 2×(DIF−DEA); RSI/ATR use the Wilder method; OI is measured in coins. The 1.5x volume ratio is a condition to watch, not a backtested threshold. ETF figures for October 5 have not been reported; do not treat them as zero inflows. Figure 1 shows the latest closed hourly candle. Figure 2’s liquidation data is an old 16:20 snapshot, summing only price bins from a single time slice; it is not market-wide data or actual liquidation amounts, and should not be used as a basis for current positioning or directional bias.
For discussion only; not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
