My instinct on $TAO is that in this rally from $232 to $321, fresh inflows only showed up once, on September 22. Since then, the price has continued to rise, but trading volume hasn't kept pace.
What needs verifying is simple: if the divergence between price and volume is just short-term noise, then $TAO should rebound with rising volume after this low-volume pullback. If it isn't noise, then the current $303 level is a point of contention. The price is up 27.77% over 30 days, but almost all of that gain came during the pump from September 19 to September 28. The past 7 days have actually been flat, while volume has fallen from $616M to $164M—a level only slightly above where it was before the rally.
What concerns me more is the structure of this rally: from $232 to $321, the bulk of the gains came in just 3 days. A move of nearly 30% in three days happened so quickly that most people didn't have time to build a position. So the subsequent decline looks more like a correction after such a rapid run-up. The question is whether that correction is over. The huge-volume candle on September 22 took the price to $318, and it's now at $303—a pullback of only 5%. If this is a shakeout, it's been remarkably gentle.
What we really need to confirm is this: if $TAO continues to trade sideways on declining volume in the $296–$307 range over the next few days, there's no need to rush to call this the end of the trend; it may simply be digesting that volume spike. But if volume suddenly surges above $400M at some point and the price fails to surpass the $321 high, then we'll have to admit that this may be the local top. It's still 60% below its ATH, but without a new catalyst, that gap alone isn't a reason to hold—the $TAO needs to prove that fresh inflows will return after this period of declining volume.
What needs verifying is simple: if the divergence between price and volume is just short-term noise, then $TAO should rebound with rising volume after this low-volume pullback. If it isn't noise, then the current $303 level is a point of contention. The price is up 27.77% over 30 days, but almost all of that gain came during the pump from September 19 to September 28. The past 7 days have actually been flat, while volume has fallen from $616M to $164M—a level only slightly above where it was before the rally.
What concerns me more is the structure of this rally: from $232 to $321, the bulk of the gains came in just 3 days. A move of nearly 30% in three days happened so quickly that most people didn't have time to build a position. So the subsequent decline looks more like a correction after such a rapid run-up. The question is whether that correction is over. The huge-volume candle on September 22 took the price to $318, and it's now at $303—a pullback of only 5%. If this is a shakeout, it's been remarkably gentle.
What we really need to confirm is this: if $TAO continues to trade sideways on declining volume in the $296–$307 range over the next few days, there's no need to rush to call this the end of the trend; it may simply be digesting that volume spike. But if volume suddenly surges above $400M at some point and the price fails to surpass the $321 high, then we'll have to admit that this may be the local top. It's still 60% below its ATH, but without a new catalyst, that gap alone isn't a reason to hold—the $TAO needs to prove that fresh inflows will return after this period of declining volume.