$BTC This afternoon I said shorts were crowded and 87,400 would eventually be broken. The data has changed now: those shorts have already closed, so there’s less fuel for a breakout.
From 13:00 to 19:00, open interest in futures fell from 98,707 contracts to 97,076, a drop of 1,631. From 13:00 to 15:00, the taker buy/sell ratios were 1.41, 1.25, and 1.27—the buyers kept hitting the market, but the price only recovered from 85,538 to 86,078. Falling open interest, aggressive buying, and only a modest price rise: that’s shorts closing, not new longs entering. The retail long/short ratio rebounded from 0.91 to 1.00, while large traders barely moved.
4H MACD (12,26,9): DIF 459.3, DEA 356.3, histogram 103, down from 118 on the previous bar—it’s starting to shrink. When price surged to 87,220 on October 2, the 4H histogram peaked at 308. This time, price touched 86,999, but momentum is less than 40% of what it was then.
4H KDJ (9,3,3): K 68.2, D 70.4, J 63.7. K has just fallen below D, and this bar still has 20 minutes before closing, so it’s a potential death cross. On October 2, J also turned down after rising above 100, and over the following eight hours, price plunged from 87,220 to 83,888.
ATR (14): 4H rose from 610 to 718, or about 0.83%; meanwhile, the 1H Bollinger Band width narrowed from 2.61% to 1.99%. Volatility is expanding on the higher timeframe while the lower timeframe is coiling. The U.S. stock market open tonight will probably set the direction.
Daily highs: 87,396, 87,279, 87,220, and today’s 86,999—each lower than the last. Lows: 82,563, 83,888, 84,720, and today’s 85,412—each higher than the last. The triangle is nearing its apex. First, watch 85,412 below; if that breaks, watch 84,720. Above, 86,999–87,400 is the ceiling price has failed to break through four times. If the daily candle closes above 87,400, my bearish view is invalidated.
I’m leaning toward a retest of 85,400 first tonight, before we talk about a fifth attempt at the highs. Some say that once shorts have closed, the market is free to run. I think it’s lost a source of fuel. Which side are you on?
#BTC #U.S. stock market open
From 13:00 to 19:00, open interest in futures fell from 98,707 contracts to 97,076, a drop of 1,631. From 13:00 to 15:00, the taker buy/sell ratios were 1.41, 1.25, and 1.27—the buyers kept hitting the market, but the price only recovered from 85,538 to 86,078. Falling open interest, aggressive buying, and only a modest price rise: that’s shorts closing, not new longs entering. The retail long/short ratio rebounded from 0.91 to 1.00, while large traders barely moved.
4H MACD (12,26,9): DIF 459.3, DEA 356.3, histogram 103, down from 118 on the previous bar—it’s starting to shrink. When price surged to 87,220 on October 2, the 4H histogram peaked at 308. This time, price touched 86,999, but momentum is less than 40% of what it was then.
4H KDJ (9,3,3): K 68.2, D 70.4, J 63.7. K has just fallen below D, and this bar still has 20 minutes before closing, so it’s a potential death cross. On October 2, J also turned down after rising above 100, and over the following eight hours, price plunged from 87,220 to 83,888.
ATR (14): 4H rose from 610 to 718, or about 0.83%; meanwhile, the 1H Bollinger Band width narrowed from 2.61% to 1.99%. Volatility is expanding on the higher timeframe while the lower timeframe is coiling. The U.S. stock market open tonight will probably set the direction.
Daily highs: 87,396, 87,279, 87,220, and today’s 86,999—each lower than the last. Lows: 82,563, 83,888, 84,720, and today’s 85,412—each higher than the last. The triangle is nearing its apex. First, watch 85,412 below; if that breaks, watch 84,720. Above, 86,999–87,400 is the ceiling price has failed to break through four times. If the daily candle closes above 87,400, my bearish view is invalidated.
I’m leaning toward a retest of 85,400 first tonight, before we talk about a fifth attempt at the highs. Some say that once shorts have closed, the market is free to run. I think it’s lost a source of fuel. Which side are you on?
#BTC #U.S. stock market open
