$BTC Russia initially opposed legalizing cryptocurrency too, but after fighting for several years, getting kicked out of SWIFT by the US, and continuing to seek de-dollarization, cryptocurrency may be the only alternative left. If you can't beat them, join them—Putin gets it. I just wonder when the “Great Qing” will wake up.
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The odds of a rate hike have fallen, so why can’t BTC break higher?
🚨 A very unusual signal is emerging in the market:
U.S. employment is cooling noticeably, and the odds of a Fed rate hike in October have dropped sharply.
Based on past patterns, this should have been a clear positive for BTC.
But even after a surge, BTC still hasn’t managed to break out and gain real upside momentum.
Why?
Because what’s really weighing on the market may no longer be whether the Fed will raise rates.
It may be—Treasury yields.
📉 The labor market is cooling 🟢 Expectations for an October rate hike have fallen sharply 💰 Institutional investors are still watching BTC 🔴 But long-term Treasury yields remain high
That’s the biggest contradiction right now:
Expectations for monetary policy are shifting toward easing, but the market’s actual cost of capital hasn’t come down yet.
So what BTC really needs next may be more than just “no rate hike.”
It needs Treasury yields to actually start falling.
If yields turn lower, pressure on risk assets could ease quickly.
But if yields keep climbing—
Even with buyers stepping in, BTC could still struggle to move higher.
So there’s just one variable I’m watching next:
Treasury yields.
🟢 Liquidity starts flowing back in 🔴 High yields keep weighing on BTC
Something to watch out for, everyone: Since October, Bitcoin has failed four times to break above its opening price of $87,000. If it gets rejected again, bullish sentiment may falter. I have red envelopes here 👉👉👉👉👉🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧👈👈👈👈
🇨🇳 October 5 | Crypto Market Brief $BNB 🧧 📈 BTC tests $87K again as selling pressure emerges
BTC is currently around $86.2–86.4K, having briefly approached $87K during the day; ETH is around $2.73K, and SOL around $121–122.
BTC has now tested the $86.5–87K area for the second time, but has yet to break above the late-September high of around $87.4K. The total market cap has climbed back to around $3T.
🏦 OKX × ICE: 24/7 U.S. stock trading moves on-chain
The biggest institutional news of the day is here.
OKXICE, formed by OKX and Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the NYSE, has filed an application with the SEC to launch a 24/7 U.S. tokenized stock trading platform.
The initial lineup is planned to cover more than 60 companies, including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, Coinbase, Circle, and SpaceX, with deployment planned on X Layer.
This is no longer “RWA in theory”—it’s an attempt to bring traditional stock markets truly on-chain.
🟠 Saylor sends another signal, but no confirmed BTC purchase yet
Michael Saylor posted “More orange than ever” again.
Naturally, the market began speculating about whether Strategy is going to buy BTC again.
But as of this morning, there is no new 8-K confirmation.
Strategy currently holds 847,666 BTC at an average cost of around $75,437; its most recently confirmed purchase remains the 1,665 BTC bought in late September.
🔥 ETF flows: Still strong on a weekly basis
For the week of September 28–October 2, BTC ETFs saw net inflows of around $241M, while ETH ETFs saw net outflows of around $138M.
SOL ETFs saw around +$2.4M, and XRP ETFs around +$4.7M.
Institutional money hasn’t disappeared from BTC; it has simply shifted from September’s frantic inflows to a noticeably slower pace.
🌡️ Macro: Weak jobs data gives BTC some breathing room
U.S. jobs data was notably weak last week, leading the market to lower its expectations of another rate hike in October.
But $87K remains a key resistance level; if BTC can’t break through decisively, it could return to around $85K to look for support again.
📊 Market Snapshot
BTC ≈ $86.2–86.4K ETH ≈ $2.73K SOL ≈ $121–122 XRP ≈ $1.52 BNB ≈ $797 BTC Dominance ≈ 58% Fear & Greed ≈ 70
🎯 What’s really worth watching today isn’t just whether BTC can break above $87K.
More importantly:
Traditional stocks are moving toward 24/7 on-chain trading, institutions continue to seek compliant entry points into RWA, and BTC is waiting for its next real breakout.
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