There’s more to the oil story than meets the eye. Iranian exports are up, and plenty of people in the market are shouting “it’s about to collapse.” But the logic in this CFR article is exactly the opposite: rising exports aren’t a sign of collapse; they show Iran finding ways to stay afloat through the gaps in sanctions.
This narrative is bearish for oil prices. As long as supply isn’t cut off, $CL will struggle to break higher. It’s at 90.66 now, down 0.6% over 24 hours. In the short term, the question is whether it can hold the 90 level. If it breaks, a move toward 88 wouldn’t be surprising. The geopolitical premium is gradually being squeezed out, so bulls shouldn’t get too attached.
By contrast, $XAU is hovering around 4162, up a modest 0.44% over 24 hours. Safe-haven demand hasn’t completely disappeared, and the Middle East situation is far from over, so gold still has a solid foundation. Falling oil prices plus lingering safe-haven demand provide mild support for gold. The 4150 level is one to watch in the short term.
In short: oil is weak, gold is steady. Don’t treat Iranian export data as a one-way trading signal.
#Gold
This narrative is bearish for oil prices. As long as supply isn’t cut off, $CL will struggle to break higher. It’s at 90.66 now, down 0.6% over 24 hours. In the short term, the question is whether it can hold the 90 level. If it breaks, a move toward 88 wouldn’t be surprising. The geopolitical premium is gradually being squeezed out, so bulls shouldn’t get too attached.
By contrast, $XAU is hovering around 4162, up a modest 0.44% over 24 hours. Safe-haven demand hasn’t completely disappeared, and the Middle East situation is far from over, so gold still has a solid foundation. Falling oil prices plus lingering safe-haven demand provide mild support for gold. The 4150 level is one to watch in the short term.
In short: oil is weak, gold is steady. Don’t treat Iranian export data as a one-way trading signal.
#Gold