QCP Capital says the macro narrative has rapidly shifted over the past three weeks from “an October rate hike” to “the Fed holding steady.” September nonfarm payrolls rose by just 29,000, below expectations of 84,000, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2% and year-over-year wage growth slowed to 3.0%, bringing the probability of an October rate hike down to 22%. However, the 10-year Treasury yield remains around 5.25%. In crypto markets, BTC has recovered to around $86,700. QCP believes it must decisively break above $87,200 to confirm the next leg higher, while ETH continues to trade in the $2,650–$2,800 range. Markets will next focus on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes and the October 14 CPI data.