A Binance Research report says BTC rebounded 46.9% from a low of about $57,800 on July 1 to around $84,880, but this rally is not enough to confirm a cycle bottom. Its analysis shows that historically, when BTC has rebounded by more than 40% after falling only 30%–38% from its previous peak, it has subsequently fallen below its previous low in 4 out of 5 cases. When the current signal was triggered, BTC was still 35.6% below its all-time high, placing it in this “shallow pullback” range. Although BTC’s maximum drawdown in this cycle was only 54.2%, it was about 1.94 standard deviations after adjusting for volatility—similar to the previous three bear markets—suggesting that this cycle is more characterized by “lower volatility” than by a significant reduction in risk.