SUI has been moving sideways for 8 days, and the daily MACD histogram has shrunk by 87%. Plenty of people are saying this move has run out of steam. I actually think this is the most convincing stretch we’ve seen since the rally in September.
First, momentum. Daily MACD (12,26,9): DIF 0.1090, DEA 0.1031, histogram 0.0059. At its September 27 peak, the histogram was 0.0452. But DIF has stayed between 0.109 and 0.115 for the past 9 days, with no death cross. The price isn’t falling, while the moving averages are catching up—that’s time consolidating instead of price, which is very different from a rally that spikes and then pulls back.
Daily Bollinger Bands (20,2): middle band 1.056, upper band 1.389, lower band 0.724. The bandwidth has contracted from 84.6% to 63.0%, %B is 0.77, and the price has stayed in the upper half of the band. Daily EMA 12/26/50/200 = 1.143/1.034/0.933/0.914. The EMA50 only crossed above the EMA200 on October 3—that golden cross came after the price had already climbed all the way from 0.67.
The chart is forming an ascending triangle: the ceiling is at 1.2921–1.2947 (tested twice on 9/27 and 9/28), while the lows have been rising steadily: 1.0922→1.1032→1.1444→1.1707→1.2035. A daily close below 1.1707 would invalidate the pattern; below that, the next level to watch is the bottom of the range at 1.09.
There’s an interesting detail in the derivatives market: the 4-hour candle at 8 p.m. last night surged 6%, and open interest rose from 131 million to 138 million tokens. Yet when funding settled at 8 a.m. this morning, the rate was -0.0104%—a lot of the positions added during the rally were shorts. After that, the price rebounded from 1.1955 to 1.2433, while OI barely fell. SUI/BTC has also recovered from 0.00001356 on October 2 to 0.00001429, not far from its September high of 0.00001496.
What makes me uneasy is the retail account long/short ratio of 2.10: nearly 70% of accounts are long. If this turns out to be a false breakout, the resulting rush for the exits could get ugly.
On the third test of 1.29, are you betting on a breakout or a triple top?
$SUI $BTC #SUI #Altcoins
First, momentum. Daily MACD (12,26,9): DIF 0.1090, DEA 0.1031, histogram 0.0059. At its September 27 peak, the histogram was 0.0452. But DIF has stayed between 0.109 and 0.115 for the past 9 days, with no death cross. The price isn’t falling, while the moving averages are catching up—that’s time consolidating instead of price, which is very different from a rally that spikes and then pulls back.
Daily Bollinger Bands (20,2): middle band 1.056, upper band 1.389, lower band 0.724. The bandwidth has contracted from 84.6% to 63.0%, %B is 0.77, and the price has stayed in the upper half of the band. Daily EMA 12/26/50/200 = 1.143/1.034/0.933/0.914. The EMA50 only crossed above the EMA200 on October 3—that golden cross came after the price had already climbed all the way from 0.67.
The chart is forming an ascending triangle: the ceiling is at 1.2921–1.2947 (tested twice on 9/27 and 9/28), while the lows have been rising steadily: 1.0922→1.1032→1.1444→1.1707→1.2035. A daily close below 1.1707 would invalidate the pattern; below that, the next level to watch is the bottom of the range at 1.09.
There’s an interesting detail in the derivatives market: the 4-hour candle at 8 p.m. last night surged 6%, and open interest rose from 131 million to 138 million tokens. Yet when funding settled at 8 a.m. this morning, the rate was -0.0104%—a lot of the positions added during the rally were shorts. After that, the price rebounded from 1.1955 to 1.2433, while OI barely fell. SUI/BTC has also recovered from 0.00001356 on October 2 to 0.00001429, not far from its September high of 0.00001496.
What makes me uneasy is the retail account long/short ratio of 2.10: nearly 70% of accounts are long. If this turns out to be a false breakout, the resulting rush for the exits could get ugly.
On the third test of 1.29, are you betting on a breakout or a triple top?
$SUI $BTC #SUI #Altcoins
