$ADA 24 hours +10.79%. Just looking at this one candle, it looks like a sudden start. But if you put it back into the last 30 days, it’s actually a continuation of raising the weight from mid-September around 0.195 — up 30 days +28.29%, 7 days +9.85%. It hasn’t been fast, but it hasn’t broken either.
What you really should look at is volume. In early September, the daily turnover is still hovering around 400 million. After September 22, it stabilizes in the 600–900 million range—now it’s 947M. This is what re-entry of liquidity looks like; it doesn’t have the kind of spike you’d see from retail FOMO. The market cap (#16, 10.17B) also tells you one thing: if you’re trying to find an old narrative that can carry a position, $ADA is one of the few available options.
Don’t rush to read it as a reversal. The -91.22% from ATH and -68.89% over one year mean there are layered breakout/exit positions waiting above, and near 0.30 won’t be easy. On September 23, turnover was 933M, and the price then pulled back to 0.238—this plot has already played out once.
My view is: as long as daily turnover doesn’t fall back to 400–500M, and the price doesn’t lose 0.24, this uplift structure is still valid. On the other hand, what variable do you think is most likely to overturn it? Is it the broader market beta, the narrative switching somewhere else, or the possibility that $ADA ’s own ecosystem has simply been slow to follow through? I lean toward the last one, but I can’t say it with certainty.
What you really should look at is volume. In early September, the daily turnover is still hovering around 400 million. After September 22, it stabilizes in the 600–900 million range—now it’s 947M. This is what re-entry of liquidity looks like; it doesn’t have the kind of spike you’d see from retail FOMO. The market cap (#16, 10.17B) also tells you one thing: if you’re trying to find an old narrative that can carry a position, $ADA is one of the few available options.
Don’t rush to read it as a reversal. The -91.22% from ATH and -68.89% over one year mean there are layered breakout/exit positions waiting above, and near 0.30 won’t be easy. On September 23, turnover was 933M, and the price then pulled back to 0.238—this plot has already played out once.
My view is: as long as daily turnover doesn’t fall back to 400–500M, and the price doesn’t lose 0.24, this uplift structure is still valid. On the other hand, what variable do you think is most likely to overturn it? Is it the broader market beta, the narrative switching somewhere else, or the possibility that $ADA ’s own ecosystem has simply been slow to follow through? I lean toward the last one, but I can’t say it with certainty.