#fedoctoberratehikeoddsfallto17%
The odds that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will implement an interest rate hike at its October 2026 meeting have plummeted to just 17%, completely reversing market expectations from days earlier, when this scenario was priced at over 75%. This aggressive macro adjustment was triggered by a weak U.S. nonfarm payroll report for September, which showed the surprising creation of only 29,000 jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. As a cooling in the labor market became evident, financial prediction platforms such as Polymarket and CME FedWatch futures indicators began pricing in virtually no immediate tightening, with a shift of 83% toward a pause in rates. For investors and traders, the fading of this "tailwind" from monetary policy reduces pressure on bond yields and opens up an important channel of global liquidity, injecting renewed bullish momentum into risk assets—especially tech stocks—and into cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.
The odds that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will implement an interest rate hike at its October 2026 meeting have plummeted to just 17%, completely reversing market expectations from days earlier, when this scenario was priced at over 75%. This aggressive macro adjustment was triggered by a weak U.S. nonfarm payroll report for September, which showed the surprising creation of only 29,000 jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. As a cooling in the labor market became evident, financial prediction platforms such as Polymarket and CME FedWatch futures indicators began pricing in virtually no immediate tightening, with a shift of 83% toward a pause in rates. For investors and traders, the fading of this "tailwind" from monetary policy reduces pressure on bond yields and opens up an important channel of global liquidity, injecting renewed bullish momentum into risk assets—especially tech stocks—and into cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.
