Bitcoin touched around 87,000 for the second time within a week, but it was sold back again—just a few hundred dollars away from that late-September high.
The market is talking about “institutions are back,” but if you break down the quarterly numbers, it looks more like replenishment than fresh money.
In Q3, the net inflow into U.S. spot BTC ETFs was about $6.34 billion; in Q2 it was still roughly a $5 billion net outflow. From one quarter to the next, the swing is over $11 billion.
But on a monthly rhythm it goes like this: August saw about $3.52 billion, September about $2.65 billion. Near month-end there was also a day with net outflows of roughly $149 million (as some claim—needs verification of the figures used).
It’s as if institutions are picking up at lower prices, and the higher it goes, the more they hold back. Buyers provided a floor, but not a ceiling.
On the macro front, September nonfarm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs. The probability pricing for further rate hikes fell from about 70% to around 20% (with different estimates in the 17% to 25% range—still to be verified). The positives are on the surface, but according to public discussion, the recovery in spot trading volume has been slow, and when prices surged, volume didn’t keep up.
So now the question isn’t just “whether it can reach 87,000,” but: if incremental capital only buys at the lows, then where does the volume for this breakout come from?
Do you think this is the rotation of chips, or that the buyer base is quietly shrinking?
The market is talking about “institutions are back,” but if you break down the quarterly numbers, it looks more like replenishment than fresh money.
In Q3, the net inflow into U.S. spot BTC ETFs was about $6.34 billion; in Q2 it was still roughly a $5 billion net outflow. From one quarter to the next, the swing is over $11 billion.
But on a monthly rhythm it goes like this: August saw about $3.52 billion, September about $2.65 billion. Near month-end there was also a day with net outflows of roughly $149 million (as some claim—needs verification of the figures used).
It’s as if institutions are picking up at lower prices, and the higher it goes, the more they hold back. Buyers provided a floor, but not a ceiling.
On the macro front, September nonfarm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs. The probability pricing for further rate hikes fell from about 70% to around 20% (with different estimates in the 17% to 25% range—still to be verified). The positives are on the surface, but according to public discussion, the recovery in spot trading volume has been slow, and when prices surged, volume didn’t keep up.
So now the question isn’t just “whether it can reach 87,000,” but: if incremental capital only buys at the lows, then where does the volume for this breakout come from?
Do you think this is the rotation of chips, or that the buyer base is quietly shrinking?