Today’s script for the Asia session is very clear: after last Friday’s non-farm payrolls came out, the market quickly shelved the scenario of another Fed rate hike in October, and risk assets rallied all the way through Monday’s Asia session.

[Quote Snapshot | 12:01 Taiwan time]

BTC: $86,050 (24h +1.43%), 24h range $84,808–$86,999

ETH: $2,716 (24h +0.78%), 24h range $2,691–$2,740

1. The non-farm payrolls weakened; the chance of a rate hike in October is down to around 20%

U.S. September employment growth is much slower than expected, and the first two months were also heavily revised down. According to Reuters, the market is currently only pricing in about a 22% chance that the Fed will raise rates again this month. Don’t forget the Fed just raised rates in September—its first hike in three years. When rate-hike pressure eases, the dollar weakens, which is the main fuel behind BTC regaining 86K over the past couple of days.

2. U.S. Treasury yields have pulled back from their highs, but they’re still high.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly surged to 5.34% last Thursday, the highest in 24 years, and this morning it retreated to around 5.26%. As yields ease a bit, crypto and tech stocks get some breathing room; however, risk-free returns above 5% are still there—competing for the same pool of capital as BTC. This pressure hasn’t disappeared; it has only temporarily relaxed.

3. Asian stocks open higher; Nikkei rebounds to 70,000, and the AI rally is back.

Nikkei jumped about 2% in early trading, the first time in three months it’s reclaimed the 70,000 level. Nikkei Asia highlighted a return of AI optimism. Nasdaq also closed at a record high last Friday, and Nasdaq 100 futures are up another ~0.4% this morning. Tech stocks lead the charge, which is a boost for risk appetite in the crypto market.

4. Yemen kicks off the fighting—Middle East oil-price risk hasn’t faded.

The Yemeni government announced a large-scale counteroffensive against the Houthis on Sunday, aiming to retake the Bab el-Mandeb strait and areas along the Red Sea coastline. The Houthis, meanwhile, claimed they used missiles and drones to strike Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and Khurais (Reuters). Brent crude is trading roughly between $101 and $103 today. With oil prices stuck above $100, it’s hard to bring inflation down, and the Fed also has difficulty genuinely turning dovish—one of the biggest variables weighing on risk assets this year.

5. BTC ETF inflows return—an okay start to October

U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $134.4 million in the first two trading days before October, recouping most of the $148.7 million that left on 9/30. For September, total net inflows were $2.65 billion, the second-largest month in a year (Decrypt, The Block). The fund-flow figures after the employment report are the key—watch the direction once U.S. stocks open tonight.

6. SEC clears 3x leveraged BTC and ETH ETPs

On 10/2, the SEC approved six products listed on Cboe BZX, including 3x BTC and 3x ETH from Volatility Shares. This marks the first time the U.S. has approved triple-leveraged ETPs linked to both BTC and ETH. However, trading can’t begin until the S-1 takes effect, and the listing date hasn’t been announced yet. Long term, it’s likely just another leveraged entry point in traditional markets; for the short term, treat it mainly as a sentiment-driven theme.

Key time points to watch this week (Taiwan time): tonight 22:00—ISM Services PMI; early Thursday at 2:00 a.m.—FOMC September meeting minutes. After that: 10/14 CPI and the Fed rate decision on 10/28.

My take:

Cooling rate-hike expectations plus ETF inflows gives a reason for BTC to push higher. But the 87,000–87,300 zone was hit back on 10/2 just once, and longs were cleared out in a big way that day. I’m going to view today as the tug-of-war period before the breakout. Only if it holds above 87,300 would there be a chance to look toward 90K; if it gets pushed back down again, around 82,500 is a support area I’d pay more attention to. Those two “landmines”—yields and oil prices—are still out there. I’d keep leverage smaller and wait for Thursday’s meeting minutes before deciding whether to add more.