September non-farm payrolls rose by only 29,000 (the market had expected a larger number), and BTC pushed up to 87,220—support held for just 1 minute.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release on 10/2 at 20:30 (UTC+8) / 12:30 UTC: Sep non-farm +29,000, unemployment rate 4.2%, and a further downward revision of the combined totals for July and August by 60,000. The Fed only hiked to 3.75%–4% on 9/16—so weaker employment is effectively cooling the case for an “additional rate hike” in October.
Binance BTCUSDT candlesticks: about 86,616 before the release, then at 20:31 (UTC+8) it hit 87,220 and immediately pulled back. In the early hours of 10/3, from 02:00–03:00 (UTC+8), the low was 83,888, about −3.8% from the high. Weekend trading volume was only around 26%–30% of Friday’s, and price got stuck at 84.5K–85K. It only bounced back above 86.5K in the early hours Monday; this morning the high was 86,999, and it still hasn’t reclaimed 87,220. At 11:50 (UTC+8), it was about 86,306.
My take (inference): any “positive” impact from weaker data was already absorbed right at the time of release. For the later drop, I didn’t find a reliable reason, so I won’t force it to fit a non-farm explanation.
Next to watch:
1. After the U.S. stock market opens tonight at 21:30 (UTC+8) / 13:30 UTC, can volume help keep price above/around 86K and break through 87,220?
2. If it falls back below 83,888, then the line of reasoning “weak jobs = bullish” will be invalid for now.
Next checkpoint: 10/27–28 FOMC.
Source: BLS Employment Situation (USDL-26-1549), Fed FOMC calendar, Binance BTCUSDT chart | Not investment advice $BTC
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release on 10/2 at 20:30 (UTC+8) / 12:30 UTC: Sep non-farm +29,000, unemployment rate 4.2%, and a further downward revision of the combined totals for July and August by 60,000. The Fed only hiked to 3.75%–4% on 9/16—so weaker employment is effectively cooling the case for an “additional rate hike” in October.
Binance BTCUSDT candlesticks: about 86,616 before the release, then at 20:31 (UTC+8) it hit 87,220 and immediately pulled back. In the early hours of 10/3, from 02:00–03:00 (UTC+8), the low was 83,888, about −3.8% from the high. Weekend trading volume was only around 26%–30% of Friday’s, and price got stuck at 84.5K–85K. It only bounced back above 86.5K in the early hours Monday; this morning the high was 86,999, and it still hasn’t reclaimed 87,220. At 11:50 (UTC+8), it was about 86,306.
My take (inference): any “positive” impact from weaker data was already absorbed right at the time of release. For the later drop, I didn’t find a reliable reason, so I won’t force it to fit a non-farm explanation.
Next to watch:
1. After the U.S. stock market opens tonight at 21:30 (UTC+8) / 13:30 UTC, can volume help keep price above/around 86K and break through 87,220?
2. If it falls back below 83,888, then the line of reasoning “weak jobs = bullish” will be invalid for now.
Next checkpoint: 10/27–28 FOMC.
Source: BLS Employment Situation (USDL-26-1549), Fed FOMC calendar, Binance BTCUSDT chart | Not investment advice $BTC