Replaying last night’s market action, it’s really just eight words: U.S. stocks are grinding, and crypto is holding its breath. In the RTH session those few hours, $BTC moved from 85080 to 85791, only 0.84%—it’s dull to look at. Then once U.S. stocks closed, at 22:00 the hourly candle immediately released a massive 13,000-unit volume, driving all the way to 86976 by 9:00 this morning.
Why can’t 87K be touched two days in a row? Here’s my logic: overhead there’s a whole block of liquidation liquidity. The first push is to apply pressure; the second push is for harvesting and trapping the chasing shorts; only the third attempt may be the real move. And what’s different this time from before is that the macro backdrop is helping: the jobs report is weak beyond words, and the probability of a rate hike in October has already fallen to 17%. ETF net inflows in Q3 were $6.34B, while Q2 was a net outflow of $5.0B—going in and out effectively swings by over $10B, and the money is truly back. The funding rate is only 0.00007—so longs aren’t getting frantic. I’d rather treat this low-volume pullback as buildup.
As for strategy: don’t chase above 86.5K. Wait for the third breakout and confirm with volume. If it gets slammed back into the launch zone of 85300–85500, that’s an opportunity—don’t treat it as risk. A lot of the time, whether you’re right on direction is one thing; timing your entry at the right level is even more important.
The market changes at any time, and my view will change with it. Short-term is short-term, and for swings, take what you should hold—don’t call it “bull” after a single day up, or “bear market” after a single day down. The ones who lose money in this market are always the fence-sitters. $ETH
Why can’t 87K be touched two days in a row? Here’s my logic: overhead there’s a whole block of liquidation liquidity. The first push is to apply pressure; the second push is for harvesting and trapping the chasing shorts; only the third attempt may be the real move. And what’s different this time from before is that the macro backdrop is helping: the jobs report is weak beyond words, and the probability of a rate hike in October has already fallen to 17%. ETF net inflows in Q3 were $6.34B, while Q2 was a net outflow of $5.0B—going in and out effectively swings by over $10B, and the money is truly back. The funding rate is only 0.00007—so longs aren’t getting frantic. I’d rather treat this low-volume pullback as buildup.
As for strategy: don’t chase above 86.5K. Wait for the third breakout and confirm with volume. If it gets slammed back into the launch zone of 85300–85500, that’s an opportunity—don’t treat it as risk. A lot of the time, whether you’re right on direction is one thing; timing your entry at the right level is even more important.
The market changes at any time, and my view will change with it. Short-term is short-term, and for swings, take what you should hold—don’t call it “bull” after a single day up, or “bear market” after a single day down. The ones who lose money in this market are always the fence-sitters. $ETH
