Something to watch out for, everyone: Since October, Bitcoin has failed four times to break above its opening price of $87,000. If it gets rejected again, bullish sentiment may falter. I have red envelopes here 👉👉👉👉👉🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧👈👈👈👈
Zcash spot ETF crashed 😂 Net outflows totaled $93.56 million in a single week. That Grayscale ZCSH—back in September it was still the “weekly darling,” attracting $271 million and at one point holding 3.5% of the total $ZEC supply. But last week it completely “changed its face”: the money turned tail and ran, with assets under management falling from a peak of $980 million to $751 million. To put it simply: it rose too fast. $ZEC surged 254% in Q3—once institutions had made enough, it’s natural to take profits. This is a classic case of profit-taking, and it’s totally normal~ The key is to see whether redemptions narrow later on and whether the price can hold steady. The ETF listing itself is a milestone, and inflows plus outflows are what a healthy market looks like. At the beginning of this year, cz publicly stated: the lack of on-chain privacy is the “missing link” for the mass adoption of crypto payments. He also publicly called for privacy features to accelerate their evolution. In my view: this round of outflows doesn’t change the long-term logic of the privacy track. Privacy demand won’t disappear—it’s just being accepted by Wall Street in a more compliant way~ What do you think? Feel free to leave your comments in the section below 🥳
$SHIB SHIB launches on Solana! The canonical version is live on the Sunrise gateway, with 9 major apps—including Phantom, Jupiter, and Raydium—going live at the same time 3,005 trades in 22 minutes But don’t get carried away: on-chain liquidity is only $510,000, and the price is up just 4% DOGE and PEPE set the precedent: their launches ended quietly. Event hype isn’t the market trend itself The technicals are the main story: RSI at 61 + 3 bullish divergences + 17 days above the 200-day moving average (rare this year)—an extremely strong buy signal!!!
The odds of a rate hike have fallen, so why can’t BTC break higher?
🚨 A very unusual signal is emerging in the market:
U.S. employment is cooling noticeably, and the odds of a Fed rate hike in October have dropped sharply.
Based on past patterns, this should have been a clear positive for BTC.
But even after a surge, BTC still hasn’t managed to break out and gain real upside momentum.
Why?
Because what’s really weighing on the market may no longer be whether the Fed will raise rates.
It may be—Treasury yields.
📉 The labor market is cooling 🟢 Expectations for an October rate hike have fallen sharply 💰 Institutional investors are still watching BTC 🔴 But long-term Treasury yields remain high
That’s the biggest contradiction right now:
Expectations for monetary policy are shifting toward easing, but the market’s actual cost of capital hasn’t come down yet.
So what BTC really needs next may be more than just “no rate hike.”
It needs Treasury yields to actually start falling.
If yields turn lower, pressure on risk assets could ease quickly.
But if yields keep climbing—
Even with buyers stepping in, BTC could still struggle to move higher.
So there’s just one variable I’m watching next:
Treasury yields.
🟢 Liquidity starts flowing back in 🔴 High yields keep weighing on BTC