【Waller’s Debut: Fed Decision, Market Prices Rate-Hike Probability at Only 17%】
🚨 Big news: In his first-ever meeting chairing the rate decision, the market isn’t betting on a hike—it’s betting on whether he dares to turn dovish.
1. Waller’s first FOMC decision after taking over is approaching. Nasdaq and S&P futures have paused and are holding off ahead of the decision.
2. The trending list on the Plaza shows: the probability of a Fed rate hike in October has fallen to 17%.
3. What’s being overlooked: On the same day, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 100% tariff on some medicines. On the price side, inflation pressure is being pushed higher. This direction runs counter to the 17% easing pricing. CPI data is released in the same period.
My view: The market has priced Waller’s debut as dovish. If CPI comes in above expectations, the 17% pricing will be revalued instantly—Treasuries and the dollar will move first.
What to watch: the actual CPI release, and how Waller characterizes tariff-driven inflation in his statement.
$TLT $DXY #FedOctoberRateHikeOddsFallTo17% #DailyMarketWatch
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Fully quantitative trading—seize every market opportunity.
🚨 Big news: In his first-ever meeting chairing the rate decision, the market isn’t betting on a hike—it’s betting on whether he dares to turn dovish.
1. Waller’s first FOMC decision after taking over is approaching. Nasdaq and S&P futures have paused and are holding off ahead of the decision.
2. The trending list on the Plaza shows: the probability of a Fed rate hike in October has fallen to 17%.
3. What’s being overlooked: On the same day, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 100% tariff on some medicines. On the price side, inflation pressure is being pushed higher. This direction runs counter to the 17% easing pricing. CPI data is released in the same period.
My view: The market has priced Waller’s debut as dovish. If CPI comes in above expectations, the 17% pricing will be revalued instantly—Treasuries and the dollar will move first.
What to watch: the actual CPI release, and how Waller characterizes tariff-driven inflation in his statement.
$TLT $DXY #FedOctoberRateHikeOddsFallTo17% #DailyMarketWatch
——
Fully quantitative trading—seize every market opportunity.
