Bessent: Rising U.S. Treasury yields are in line with global trends.
The key point for BTC isn’t how high yields are right now, but why they’re rising.
If economic resilience is what’s driving yields higher, risk assets don’t necessarily weaken immediately; but if the backdrop is widening fiscal deficits, rising inflation expectations, and higher risk premia, then the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will strengthen in tandem. In that case, BTC is likely to face more pronounced liquidity pressure.
The transmission path is clear:
Rising U.S. Treasury yields → stronger U.S. dollar → higher global funding costs → downward pressure on risk-asset valuations → slowing BTC capital outflows.
The U.S. Dollar Index has already broken above 102. If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield keeps climbing and the dollar strengthens in sync, BTC may break below key support again, and investors should also be prepared for another round of pullbacks in the short term.
But if yields spike and then fall back, the dollar weakens, and spot BTC capital flows return, market pressure could ease.
So you can’t look only at the outcome—“yields rising.” You also have to assess the reasons behind the rise, and whether yields and the dollar are moving in sync.
Next, focus on three indicators:
10-year U.S. Treasury yields;
U.S. Dollar Index;
BTC spot fund flows.
My view is that whether BTC can keep strengthening in the short term depends not just on the crypto market itself, but on whether U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar can fall at the same time.
Rising yields aren’t necessarily bearish for BTC directly, but rising yields + a stronger dollar + capital outflows is the combination that needs to be watched closely.
The key point for BTC isn’t how high yields are right now, but why they’re rising.
If economic resilience is what’s driving yields higher, risk assets don’t necessarily weaken immediately; but if the backdrop is widening fiscal deficits, rising inflation expectations, and higher risk premia, then the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will strengthen in tandem. In that case, BTC is likely to face more pronounced liquidity pressure.
The transmission path is clear:
Rising U.S. Treasury yields → stronger U.S. dollar → higher global funding costs → downward pressure on risk-asset valuations → slowing BTC capital outflows.
The U.S. Dollar Index has already broken above 102. If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield keeps climbing and the dollar strengthens in sync, BTC may break below key support again, and investors should also be prepared for another round of pullbacks in the short term.
But if yields spike and then fall back, the dollar weakens, and spot BTC capital flows return, market pressure could ease.
So you can’t look only at the outcome—“yields rising.” You also have to assess the reasons behind the rise, and whether yields and the dollar are moving in sync.
Next, focus on three indicators:
10-year U.S. Treasury yields;
U.S. Dollar Index;
BTC spot fund flows.
My view is that whether BTC can keep strengthening in the short term depends not just on the crypto market itself, but on whether U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar can fall at the same time.
Rising yields aren’t necessarily bearish for BTC directly, but rising yields + a stronger dollar + capital outflows is the combination that needs to be watched closely.