XRP pushed above the prior high this hour, then closed back into the range. On October 5 from 09:00 to 10:00 Beijing time, the XRP/USDT spot high was 1.531 USDT, higher than 1.525 from 08:00 to 09:00; it finally closed at 1.5206, lower than the previous hour’s close of 1.5232. Based on the already closed 1H candle, an upper-bound breakout has not yet been confirmed.

In the same set of official closed data, volume fell from 1.7427 million XRP to 1.4510 million XRP, a decrease of 16.7%. After the price crossed above the upper band, it pulled back, and the additional trading volume also shrank; this supports the view that the extension upward is temporarily being resisted. You can’t conclude someone is distributing just from a single long upper wick.

Next, observe whether 1.525 can be regained by the hourly close, and whether the subsequent hourly candle can maintain a close no lower than that level; the two-step process is completed, and this time the “rejection” confirmation becomes invalid. If the next hourly close falls below this hour’s low of 1.5198, and the volume exceeds 1.4510 million XRP, then the continuation of the pullback would have further grounds. If both conditions are not met, continue to monitor the price action within the range.

Data is current as of 10:00 Beijing time. Source is the official XRP/USDT spot 1H K-line, all with confirm=1; volume units are XRP, price units are USDT. Discussing structure only and does not constitute investment advice.

My view is that once price returns to 1.525 and then holds it with an hourly close, the evidence of rejection becomes clearly weaker. If the next hour closes above 1.525 and then the following hour drops back down, would you consider this path another failure?