Friday left the dollar firm and hard assets on the back foot. DXY closed October 2 near 101.93 after tagging 102.21 on October 1, and early Monday trade is still around 101.90. The US 10-year finished Friday at 5.28%, up 4 bp, after a soft September payrolls print (+29k vs about +90k expected, unemployment 4.2%, wages 3.0% y/y) failed to hold the Treasury bid. Gold’s Friday cash close was about $4,141, down roughly 3.4% on the week and still well below the January 29 closing high near $5,405; silver closed near $60.4. Bitcoin held up better, finishing Friday in the mid-$84k area and trading near $86,500 in early Monday Asia. Thesis: this is a digestion week, not a data week. CPI is next week. Cash is a position until DXY and the 10-year pick a side of 102.21 and 5.34%.
NY cash equities and futures are open. Columbus Day is Monday, October 12. China remains shut for Golden Week through October 7, so Asia liquidity is thin.
Levels to open the week
Friday closes unless noted. Early Monday marks are indicative, not a new daily close.
Context, not levels: ETH near $2,700–2,720. WTI Friday $91.11 (−1.9% on the day); Brent near $102.7. Vietcombank USDVND sell 26,170, unchanged over the weekend. VN-Index Friday about 1,738, down on the session, with large-caps still the drag.
Calendar (high impact only)
Monday: US ISM Services (September). Consensus near 55.1 after 55.4. First activity check after the payrolls miss.
Tuesday: BOJ Governor Ueda speaks. No US top-tier print. China still closed.
Wednesday: FOMC minutes (September 15–16). The hike to 3.75–4.00% had a hawkish tilt. Minutes pre-date the soft payrolls, so treat them as context, not a new signal.
Thursday: US initial claims. Secondary unless the print breaks the recent range.
Friday: Canada employment. US preliminary University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations.
Not this week: US CPI is Wednesday, October 14. No FOMC decision. No NFP.
Three paths
A — Base. DXY stays 101.45–102.21 and the 10-year stays 5.17–5.34%. Gold chops $4,115–$4,185. Silver lags. Bitcoin respects $84k–$87.2k. ISM Services near 55 and a dated set of minutes do not reset the Fed path. Size small.
B — Hard assets. Needs a daily DXY close under 101.45 and the 10-year back under 5.17%, which would mean the payrolls miss finally sticks. Gold can then reclaim $4,185, with $4,285 the next daily hurdle. Silver needs $62.10. Bitcoin can test $87.2k only after that dollar break, not before it.
C — Hard assets lower. A daily DXY close above 102.21 plus a 10-year through 5.34% reopens the September metals damage. Gold loses $4,115 on a daily close. Silver loses $59.70. Bitcoin’s $84k daily shelf is the line; a close under it puts $82k in play. Sticky services prices would fit this path.
Playbook
Gold: the week is about the dollar and real yields, not a fresh inflation print. Do not buy a bounce inside $4,115–$4,185 just because Asia gaps. A daily close back above $4,185 is the first long invalidation of the bearish tape. A daily close under $4,115 is the short confirmation.
Bitcoin: it was the relative winner into Friday and is bid early Monday. That is not a regime change while the 10-year is at 5.28%. Treat $87,200 as supply until a daily close clears it. ETF-flow headlines are secondary to the bond market this week.
DXY: observer instrument. RSI is elevated near the 52-week high. Strength is real until 101.45 breaks on a daily close. Do not fade 102.21 on an intraday wick.
Monday rule: China is closed and the first Asia hours are thin. Do not treat the first four hours — or any pre-London spike — as conviction. Wait for London, then New York, and use the daily close.
One-liner to pin
Dollar near 102 and the 10-year at 5.28% still set the week; hard assets need a daily break of 101.45 and 5.17% before the bounce is more than a thin-Asia trade.
Not financial advice. Confirm live prices before trading.
Brian Truong (Bloomberg, Reuters, Kitco,...)
TRADE $XAU , $BTC , $XAG HERE👇
