The most worth writing about here isn’t “it fell,” but why, after good news came out, it got hammered instead.
In the October 2 move, August’s core PCE year-over-year came in at 3.0%, below the forecast of 3.3%. Concerns about further rate hikes eased in the short term. Bitcoin returned above $87,000 for the first time in ten days, peaking at about $87,200. Then, just a few hours later, it broke below $84,000 and briefly dipped to around $83,500. Nearly $600 million in liquidations hit the whole market, mainly from long positions.
There are three layers to the mechanism—each tougher than the last:
The first layer is supply. According to data from analyst Ali Martinez, during the push toward $87,200, whales collectively sold more than 30,000 BTC. In other words, the chips for this rebound were “handed over,” not something that rose out of thin air.
The second layer is the price structure. The $87,000 level sits right on the upper edge of a price channel. Over the past couple of weeks, it has repeatedly capped the move—this is where resistance meets macro sentiment. That’s exactly where longs are most likely to end up buying at the mid-slope.
The third layer is leverage. Trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that pending open interest rose to over $1.3 billion within days before the jobs data was released. Long positions were densely stacked in the $85,500 to $86,000 range. Once that level breaks, it triggers a chain-reaction squeeze. Glassnode added another punch: the cohort holding coins in unrealized losses is accelerating their selling.
My take is that this round looks more like a “structural rotation of hands” than a “trend reversal.” The lower boundary of the channel at $82,500 is the watershed. But there’s one detail I’m not fully convinced about: many people interpret “whale selling” as bearish directly. But if those whales come back near $82,500 to accumulate again, then it could actually become a confirmation signal.
Are you watching whether $82,500 holds, or whether the earlier move above $87,100 delivered a “clean breakout”?
#Bitcoin hits the $87k mark, meets resistance and pulls back
In the October 2 move, August’s core PCE year-over-year came in at 3.0%, below the forecast of 3.3%. Concerns about further rate hikes eased in the short term. Bitcoin returned above $87,000 for the first time in ten days, peaking at about $87,200. Then, just a few hours later, it broke below $84,000 and briefly dipped to around $83,500. Nearly $600 million in liquidations hit the whole market, mainly from long positions.
There are three layers to the mechanism—each tougher than the last:
The first layer is supply. According to data from analyst Ali Martinez, during the push toward $87,200, whales collectively sold more than 30,000 BTC. In other words, the chips for this rebound were “handed over,” not something that rose out of thin air.
The second layer is the price structure. The $87,000 level sits right on the upper edge of a price channel. Over the past couple of weeks, it has repeatedly capped the move—this is where resistance meets macro sentiment. That’s exactly where longs are most likely to end up buying at the mid-slope.
The third layer is leverage. Trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that pending open interest rose to over $1.3 billion within days before the jobs data was released. Long positions were densely stacked in the $85,500 to $86,000 range. Once that level breaks, it triggers a chain-reaction squeeze. Glassnode added another punch: the cohort holding coins in unrealized losses is accelerating their selling.
My take is that this round looks more like a “structural rotation of hands” than a “trend reversal.” The lower boundary of the channel at $82,500 is the watershed. But there’s one detail I’m not fully convinced about: many people interpret “whale selling” as bearish directly. But if those whales come back near $82,500 to accumulate again, then it could actually become a confirmation signal.
Are you watching whether $82,500 holds, or whether the earlier move above $87,100 delivered a “clean breakout”?
#Bitcoin hits the $87k mark, meets resistance and pulls back