I withdraw my previous post’s bearish view about ETH’s spike and pullback. The originally agreed invalidation condition has already been triggered. From 06:00 to 07:00 Beijing time on October 5, ETH/USDT closed at 2731.01 USDT; from 07:00 to 08:00 it closed at 2727.07. Both candles are above the 2710.51 that I marked in the previous post.

The first candle’s volume is 16689.17 ETH, which is 5.90 times the earlier 2829.44 ETH; when the price reclaimed, there was clear volume support. The second candle’s volume fell to 5539.34 ETH, down by about 67%, but its low at 2724.85 is still above 2710.51. Current evidence supports that the post-breakout price is being preserved, and increased volume has not yet appeared.

Next, we’ll see whether the new high at 2740 can get a closing confirmation: if the subsequent 1H candle closes above 2740, and the volume exceeds 5539.34 ETH, we can confirm that the upside extension occurs again; if the 1H candle closes back below 2710.51, then the breakout judgment that had been retained becomes invalid. Here, we revise the call according to the original conditions; we do not infer the identity of the buyers/sellers, nor treat the two hourly candles as a long-term cycle trend.

Source is official ETH/USDT spot; the 1H period has closed with confirm=1, as of 08:00 Beijing time. The trading volume corresponds to three separate windows: 05—06, 06—07, and 07—08; not the same bucket. Price unit is USDT; volume unit is ETH. Only conditions changes are recorded and this does not constitute trading advice.

I think the volume contraction and pullback is still holding above the old highs, so you can temporarily keep the breakout thesis. If the next candle is below 5539.34 ETH but closes above 2740, what evidence would you use to refute the volume-gate threshold?