$ATH This drop is pretty decisive—on 15m it’s directly -2.68%, yet the volume is still at a normal 2.56x. The harder it falls, the more people dump; the buy-sell ratio is 0.59, and passive trade imbalance is -26%. One glance and it looks like sell orders are chasing the price down.
But what really concerns me is the OI—15m -2.70%, 1h -4.27%, nominally cutting by over $300k. The price falls and open interest drops in sync. This doesn’t look like fresh shorts entering; it looks like pressing the long side down to clear them. Liquidations, deleveraging, passive position reductions—pushing the price lower and breaking through the lower edges of nearly 20 consecutive 5m Ks.
The OI abnormal percentile is 96.4%, ranking 8th in the whole pool. It’s been continuing across several consecutive cycles, and the funding rate is still sitting at a high percentile recently. This indicates that longs were already crowded before—now they’re just as miserable. In the past 24h there’s still over $52M in traded value; liquidity isn’t lacking—what’s missing is someone willing to catch the knife.
I don’t really like guessing for a bottom with this kind of structure. When a selloff deleverages, it often only stops after it kills to the “right spot,” but the problem is no one knows where that “spot” is.
But what really concerns me is the OI—15m -2.70%, 1h -4.27%, nominally cutting by over $300k. The price falls and open interest drops in sync. This doesn’t look like fresh shorts entering; it looks like pressing the long side down to clear them. Liquidations, deleveraging, passive position reductions—pushing the price lower and breaking through the lower edges of nearly 20 consecutive 5m Ks.
The OI abnormal percentile is 96.4%, ranking 8th in the whole pool. It’s been continuing across several consecutive cycles, and the funding rate is still sitting at a high percentile recently. This indicates that longs were already crowded before—now they’re just as miserable. In the past 24h there’s still over $52M in traded value; liquidity isn’t lacking—what’s missing is someone willing to catch the knife.
I don’t really like guessing for a bottom with this kind of structure. When a selloff deleverages, it often only stops after it kills to the “right spot,” but the problem is no one knows where that “spot” is.