🔷 "Four-year cycle $BTC — a complete illusion"
📋 Facts:
• Analyst Dan Gambar（d）ello announced his rejection of the four-year cycle theory
• For years, he used the halving cycle in his analyses
• Now he believes the market depends on global economic cycles
• Correlation with the PMI ISM index is stronger than with halving dates
• In his view, BTC hit a low in June 2026, not October
• The tightening by the Fed ended in December 2025
• His own US business cycle index signaled expansion
🧠 Gambar（d）ello breaks one of the main crypto-industry dogmas: the four-year halving cycle as a price determinant. His argument is compelling: past halvings coincided with phases of economic downturn and recovery, creating a false cause-and-effect link. If the market really depends on the economic cycle rather than the halving calendar, then the current cycle may last longer than expected— and the "true bull market" has not started yet.
⚠️ Risks: possible underestimation of cyclical patterns; dependence on macro indicators; risk of misinterpreting the economic cycle.
❓ Is Gambar（d）ello right to dismiss the four-year cycle? 👇
#BTC
📋 Facts:
• Analyst Dan Gambar（d）ello announced his rejection of the four-year cycle theory
• For years, he used the halving cycle in his analyses
• Now he believes the market depends on global economic cycles
• Correlation with the PMI ISM index is stronger than with halving dates
• In his view, BTC hit a low in June 2026, not October
• The tightening by the Fed ended in December 2025
• His own US business cycle index signaled expansion
🧠 Gambar（d）ello breaks one of the main crypto-industry dogmas: the four-year halving cycle as a price determinant. His argument is compelling: past halvings coincided with phases of economic downturn and recovery, creating a false cause-and-effect link. If the market really depends on the economic cycle rather than the halving calendar, then the current cycle may last longer than expected— and the "true bull market" has not started yet.
⚠️ Risks: possible underestimation of cyclical patterns; dependence on macro indicators; risk of misinterpreting the economic cycle.
❓ Is Gambar（d）ello right to dismiss the four-year cycle? 👇
#BTC