Next week’s Fed minutes—first separate the two dates
In the same sentence, “officials are concerned about inflation,” when exactly does it refer to? The timing may change what it means for trading.
The Fed’s official calendar shows that the minutes for the meeting on September 15–16 are scheduled to be released at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on October 7, which corresponds to 2:00 a.m. Beijing Time on October 8. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 27–28.
So, what’s released on October 7 is the details discussed at the previous meeting—it is not a brand-new interest-rate decision made that day. As of tonight, the minutes have not been published yet, so we can’t pre-write “a hawkish” or “a dovish” conclusion in advance.
I’ll read it in two layers. The first layer looks at the disagreement at the time: what specific risks everyone was most worried about, and what conditions might change their stance. The second layer compares those conditions with new information that emerged after the meeting, to judge whether the original concerns still hold.
This is especially useful for macro trading in BTC, ETH, and SOL. The old discussions are being made public for the first time, so they could bring new information; but if you ignore the date when the discussions took place, you might mistake a judgment made three weeks ago for the officials’ latest attitude right now.
My approach is to first remember the publication time and the meeting date, then list the questions that need to be verified. What’s truly worth watching is whether newly disclosed disagreements can change the market’s prior expectations—not rushing to pick a direction just because you see a strong adjective.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Click my avatar to view live trades with orders
In the same sentence, “officials are concerned about inflation,” when exactly does it refer to? The timing may change what it means for trading.
The Fed’s official calendar shows that the minutes for the meeting on September 15–16 are scheduled to be released at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on October 7, which corresponds to 2:00 a.m. Beijing Time on October 8. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 27–28.
So, what’s released on October 7 is the details discussed at the previous meeting—it is not a brand-new interest-rate decision made that day. As of tonight, the minutes have not been published yet, so we can’t pre-write “a hawkish” or “a dovish” conclusion in advance.
I’ll read it in two layers. The first layer looks at the disagreement at the time: what specific risks everyone was most worried about, and what conditions might change their stance. The second layer compares those conditions with new information that emerged after the meeting, to judge whether the original concerns still hold.
This is especially useful for macro trading in BTC, ETH, and SOL. The old discussions are being made public for the first time, so they could bring new information; but if you ignore the date when the discussions took place, you might mistake a judgment made three weeks ago for the officials’ latest attitude right now.
My approach is to first remember the publication time and the meeting date, then list the questions that need to be verified. What’s truly worth watching is whether newly disclosed disagreements can change the market’s prior expectations—not rushing to pick a direction just because you see a strong adjective.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Click my avatar to view live trades with orders
