$TAO
On October 2nd at 4 PM, a 4-hour candlestick for TAO crashed from 308 to 285, down 7.3%. Trading volume was $84.6 million. This is TAO’s largest bearish candle over the past five days.
Previously, TAO had been ranging in the 305–310 zone for two days, with volume shrinking to around 20 million per candle. Then suddenly, a surge in sell volume hit the market. This isn’t something retail investors can do. Big players started trimming around 316. On the noon of October 2nd, there was a 4-hour candle that surged to 316.43, with a very long upper wick; it closed at 308. By the evening of the same day, it broke down directly.
The low of this big bearish candle was as low as 281.75. It was still a way off from the support level I saw at 287.75, which suggests the main force intentionally punched through support to create panic. After breaking through, it quickly reclaimed above 285. The next four candles all traded in a tight range between 288 and 296. A classic “shakeout” pattern.
TAO is a decentralized AI infrastructure project. It focuses on the AI model market, the computing power network, and on-chain AI inference. This sector has been炒 (actively traded/speculated) repeatedly this year, and every pullback gets buyers. From the chart, after this shakeout, the funds haven’t run far away.
**Chart signals**
At 8 PM on October 3rd, TAO pulled back from 295 to 307, forming a 4-hour candle with $28.6 million in volume. The rebound came with increased volume. But then volume contracted again—the latest 4-hour candle only had $8.5 million in volume, with a volume ratio of just 0.31. That means current trading volume is only about one-third of the average of the previous 20 candles.
Price has been hovering around 304. Without volume, there’s no direction. But the structure hasn’t broken.
**Market sentiment**
Up 5% in the last 24 hours. However, looking at the candlestick details, most of that 5% came from last night’s rebound candle. Today’s daytime barely moved—bulls and bears are too lazy to make a move.
Funding rate: +0.005% per 8 hours. It’s positive, but not high. Long-side sentiment isn’t enthusiastic, and shorts aren’t adding either.
**Big-player moves**
That October 2nd bearish candle with $84.6 million volume was dumped by big players. But after the dump, price stayed at low levels for less than 12 hours before getting bought back above 290. If big players wanted to exit, they wouldn’t quickly buy it back at the bottom. It looks more like they cleared out over-leveraged longs—swept the stop-loss orders, then pushed higher.
The swing high of the last 30 candles was 316.43—that was the spike during the noon of October 2nd. After that, it never again tested above 310. Resistance is 310.5. To break through, volume needs to expand.
**Volume-price structure**
From the selloff on October 2nd to now, trading volume has been decreasing: 84.6M → 25.2M → 24.8M → 14.4M → 12.3M → 16.7M → 18.7M → 28.6M → 23.1M → 14.6M → 21.5M → 8.5M. The rebound candle at 28.6M had volume, but the follow-through didn’t continue.
Low volume sideways between 300 and 307. Two possibilities: accumulating energy for another push up, or a rebound lacking strength leading to a second dip. With a volume ratio of 0.31, the market is waiting for a signal.
**Candlestick details**
The latest 4-hour candle: open 301.39, high 304.92, low 300.39, close 304.28. A small green candle, but the real body is very short; both upper and lower wicks are not long. Indecision.
The candle at 12:00 AM on October 4th: opened at 307 and closed at 305.72, opening strong and then drifting down. This indicates there’s selling pressure above 307. The 4 PM candle continued to slip back to 305. The 8 PM candle tagged a low of 300 and closed at 301. At 12 PM it pulled back to 304.
There’s back-and-forth between 300 and 305. Near-term bulls and bears are balanced.
**Nini’s plan**
Current price: 304.25. I’m slightly neutral to bullish.
If the shakeout pattern holds, 287.75 is the firm bottom. If it breaks below, I won’t look at it anymore. If it doesn’t break, the rebound target would be around 310.
With a light position, you can test around 300. Stop loss below 287. Resistance is 310.5—if it breaks out, add; if it doesn’t, run.
I don’t recommend chasing. The 304 rebound with shrinking volume is easy to get hit if you buy in. Wait for direction to come out first.
If you need a tailored strategy, you can find Nini.
#TAO #AI赛道 # Decentralized AI
On October 2nd at 4 PM, a 4-hour candlestick for TAO crashed from 308 to 285, down 7.3%. Trading volume was $84.6 million. This is TAO’s largest bearish candle over the past five days.
Previously, TAO had been ranging in the 305–310 zone for two days, with volume shrinking to around 20 million per candle. Then suddenly, a surge in sell volume hit the market. This isn’t something retail investors can do. Big players started trimming around 316. On the noon of October 2nd, there was a 4-hour candle that surged to 316.43, with a very long upper wick; it closed at 308. By the evening of the same day, it broke down directly.
The low of this big bearish candle was as low as 281.75. It was still a way off from the support level I saw at 287.75, which suggests the main force intentionally punched through support to create panic. After breaking through, it quickly reclaimed above 285. The next four candles all traded in a tight range between 288 and 296. A classic “shakeout” pattern.
TAO is a decentralized AI infrastructure project. It focuses on the AI model market, the computing power network, and on-chain AI inference. This sector has been炒 (actively traded/speculated) repeatedly this year, and every pullback gets buyers. From the chart, after this shakeout, the funds haven’t run far away.
**Chart signals**
At 8 PM on October 3rd, TAO pulled back from 295 to 307, forming a 4-hour candle with $28.6 million in volume. The rebound came with increased volume. But then volume contracted again—the latest 4-hour candle only had $8.5 million in volume, with a volume ratio of just 0.31. That means current trading volume is only about one-third of the average of the previous 20 candles.
Price has been hovering around 304. Without volume, there’s no direction. But the structure hasn’t broken.
**Market sentiment**
Up 5% in the last 24 hours. However, looking at the candlestick details, most of that 5% came from last night’s rebound candle. Today’s daytime barely moved—bulls and bears are too lazy to make a move.
Funding rate: +0.005% per 8 hours. It’s positive, but not high. Long-side sentiment isn’t enthusiastic, and shorts aren’t adding either.
**Big-player moves**
That October 2nd bearish candle with $84.6 million volume was dumped by big players. But after the dump, price stayed at low levels for less than 12 hours before getting bought back above 290. If big players wanted to exit, they wouldn’t quickly buy it back at the bottom. It looks more like they cleared out over-leveraged longs—swept the stop-loss orders, then pushed higher.
The swing high of the last 30 candles was 316.43—that was the spike during the noon of October 2nd. After that, it never again tested above 310. Resistance is 310.5. To break through, volume needs to expand.
**Volume-price structure**
From the selloff on October 2nd to now, trading volume has been decreasing: 84.6M → 25.2M → 24.8M → 14.4M → 12.3M → 16.7M → 18.7M → 28.6M → 23.1M → 14.6M → 21.5M → 8.5M. The rebound candle at 28.6M had volume, but the follow-through didn’t continue.
Low volume sideways between 300 and 307. Two possibilities: accumulating energy for another push up, or a rebound lacking strength leading to a second dip. With a volume ratio of 0.31, the market is waiting for a signal.
**Candlestick details**
The latest 4-hour candle: open 301.39, high 304.92, low 300.39, close 304.28. A small green candle, but the real body is very short; both upper and lower wicks are not long. Indecision.
The candle at 12:00 AM on October 4th: opened at 307 and closed at 305.72, opening strong and then drifting down. This indicates there’s selling pressure above 307. The 4 PM candle continued to slip back to 305. The 8 PM candle tagged a low of 300 and closed at 301. At 12 PM it pulled back to 304.
There’s back-and-forth between 300 and 305. Near-term bulls and bears are balanced.
**Nini’s plan**
Current price: 304.25. I’m slightly neutral to bullish.
If the shakeout pattern holds, 287.75 is the firm bottom. If it breaks below, I won’t look at it anymore. If it doesn’t break, the rebound target would be around 310.
With a light position, you can test around 300. Stop loss below 287. Resistance is 310.5—if it breaks out, add; if it doesn’t, run.
I don’t recommend chasing. The 304 rebound with shrinking volume is easy to get hit if you buy in. Wait for direction to come out first.
If you need a tailored strategy, you can find Nini.
#TAO #AI赛道 # Decentralized AI