#FedOctoberRateHikeOddsFallTo17%
🚨 THE FED MAY BE FIGHTING AN INFLATION GHOST
Wall Street keeps screaming “INFLATION!” 🔥
But the actual data?
Not so scary.
🍞 Food-at-home CPI: 2.1% YoY
That’s roughly HALF its long-run average of ~4.1%.
🎯 Trimmed-Mean PCE: 2.2% YoY
The slowest pace since 2021.
And recent monthly annualized readings are already running below 2%.
So why keep treating inflation like an emergency?
The Warsh Fed still raised rates by 25 bps in September — its first hike since 2023.
But now the market is pushing back.
📉 October Fed hike odds: just 17%
That tells us something important:
The market may be seeing disinflation faster than the Fed wants to admit.
Yes, gasoline prices are high.
But a temporary energy shock ≠ a broad inflation crisis.
If food inflation is only 2.1% and underlying PCE is around 2.2%, the bigger risk may soon shift from inflation → slowing growth.
And that changes everything for markets. 👀
BTC. Stocks. Bonds. Gold.
The next big trade may not be about higher rates.
It may be about when the Fed has to start cutting again.
📊 Watch the data.
Ignore the noise.
#Fed #FederalReserve #Inflation #CPI #PCE #InterestRates #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Markets #RateCuts
🚨 THE FED MAY BE FIGHTING AN INFLATION GHOST
Wall Street keeps screaming “INFLATION!” 🔥
But the actual data?
Not so scary.
🍞 Food-at-home CPI: 2.1% YoY
That’s roughly HALF its long-run average of ~4.1%.
🎯 Trimmed-Mean PCE: 2.2% YoY
The slowest pace since 2021.
And recent monthly annualized readings are already running below 2%.
So why keep treating inflation like an emergency?
The Warsh Fed still raised rates by 25 bps in September — its first hike since 2023.
But now the market is pushing back.
📉 October Fed hike odds: just 17%
That tells us something important:
The market may be seeing disinflation faster than the Fed wants to admit.
Yes, gasoline prices are high.
But a temporary energy shock ≠ a broad inflation crisis.
If food inflation is only 2.1% and underlying PCE is around 2.2%, the bigger risk may soon shift from inflation → slowing growth.
And that changes everything for markets. 👀
BTC. Stocks. Bonds. Gold.
The next big trade may not be about higher rates.
It may be about when the Fed has to start cutting again.
📊 Watch the data.
Ignore the noise.
#Fed #FederalReserve #Inflation #CPI #PCE #InterestRates #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Markets #RateCuts
