Regulatory and Policy Developments The U.S. introduces a major digital asset tax bill (ADAPT Act) On October 1, U.S. Senator Steve Daines officially introduced the 56-page “Act to Align Digital Assets and Tax Principles” (ADAPT Act). The bill aims to establish clear tax rules for stablecoin payments, network fees (gas fees), staking, and lending. It also proposes that digital assets used to pay network, transaction, or gas fees of $10 or less be exempt from recognizing gains or losses. In addition, it provides tax exemptions or simplified reporting for compliant purchases of goods and services using U.S. dollar stablecoins.
Market Trends and Institutional Updates Macroeconomy and Market Performance Entering October, the market is closely watching the U.S. September jobs report (non-farm payrolls), CPI data, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. Although the crypto market has recently seen an inflow of funds and a quarterly rebound (such as Bitcoin recovering somewhat over the past quarter), analyses indicate that most mainstream assets still face pressure from macro high interest rates (e.g., U.S. Treasury yields remaining at relatively elevated levels) when viewed against their year-to-date trend. The market is overall searching for direction amid “fragmented repairs” and a shift toward compliance.
RWA tokenization platform listed OpenWorld and VerifyMe have officially announced the completion of their business merger, forming a digital tokenization platform for real-world assets. They began trading on Nasdaq on October 1 under the code “OPNW,” advancing institutional-grade RWA tokenization.
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🚨 BTC didn’t keep surging, but this might be the stage where the market actually gets interesting.
Because once BTC stabilizes, capital typically starts asking the second question:
Who else hasn’t pumped enough yet?
Q3 crypto ETFs attracted around $10 billion in capital, but what’s interesting is that the growth rate of capital in some non-BTC assets is accelerating. (24/7 Wall St.)
Now the market is showing a structure worth watching:
🟠 BTC keeps the market stable 🔵 ETH waits for risk appetite to spread 🟡 BNB continues to watch relative strength 🔥 Higher-beta assets start competing for capital
A real altcoin rally has never meant “all coins go up together.”
Instead, capital moves from the safest places and gradually becomes more willing to take on higher risk.
So what I’m paying most attention to next isn’t whether BTC can rise a bit more.
It’s:
If BTC continues to range sideways, will the money start to move out?
If the answer is YES, the truly exciting part of October may still be ahead.
🟢 Capital rotation begins 🔴 BTC continues to absorb liquidity
🚨 BTC didn’t keep surging, but this might be the stage where the market actually gets interesting.
Because once BTC stabilizes, capital typically starts asking the second question:
Who else hasn’t pumped enough yet?
Q3 crypto ETFs attracted around $10 billion in capital, but what’s interesting is that the growth rate of capital in some non-BTC assets is accelerating. (24/7 Wall St.)
Now the market is showing a structure worth watching:
🟠 BTC keeps the market stable 🔵 ETH waits for risk appetite to spread 🟡 BNB continues to watch relative strength 🔥 Higher-beta assets start competing for capital
A real altcoin rally has never meant “all coins go up together.”
Instead, capital moves from the safest places and gradually becomes more willing to take on higher risk.
So what I’m paying most attention to next isn’t whether BTC can rise a bit more.
It’s:
If BTC continues to range sideways, will the money start to move out?
If the answer is YES, the truly exciting part of October may still be ahead.
🟢 Capital rotation begins 🔴 BTC continues to absorb liquidity
The Fed’s October rate-hike probability drops to 17%
🔥 The Fed’s October rate-hike probability drops to 17%: are we at a macro turning point, and is the crypto market ready to take off? 🔥 Brothers, the macro storyline has turned again! As soon as the latest data came out, it directly pushed the market’s rate-hike expectations down to a freezing low. According to the latest CME data, the probability of a Fed rate hike in October has plummeted to 17%, while the probability of holding steady has jumped to 83%! What does that mean? The “tightening spell” hanging over the crypto market is finally starting to loosen!👇 📉 The truth behind the data: why 17%? This time, the jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) sends a clear signal: the US labor market really is cooling down.
The Fed’s October rate-hike probability drops to 17%
🔥 The Fed’s October rate-hike probability drops to 17%: are we at a macro turning point, and is the crypto market ready to take off? 🔥 Brothers, the macro storyline has turned again! As soon as the latest data came out, it directly pushed the market’s rate-hike expectations down to a freezing low. According to the latest CME data, the probability of a Fed rate hike in October has plummeted to 17%, while the probability of holding steady has jumped to 83%! What does that mean? The “tightening spell” hanging over the crypto market is finally starting to loosen!👇 📉 The truth behind the data: why 17%? This time, the jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) sends a clear signal: the US labor market really is cooling down.
XRP first time in the third quarter to see three consecutive months of gains
🚨 XRP first time in the third quarter to see three consecutive months of gains After years of regulatory gloom and the accumulation of market positions, XRP achieved a historic technical breakthrough in this year’s third quarter: for the first time ever, it recorded three consecutive monthly green candles in the third quarter (July, August, and September)! For traders who have long been following Ripple and other old crypto assets, this is by no means random money-chasing speculation; it’s the combined outcome of regulatory “boots” finally landing, fundamental changes in the ecosystem, and institutional capital re-pricing. As a veteran who has been in the crypto market for years, today I’ll break down in depth with the brothers: what kind of capital logic lies behind XRP’s run of “three consecutive green candles”? Is the next move a real reversal, or is it just a “bull trap” to lure buyers? And how should retail traders position themselves?
🚨 Major breakthrough! SEC proposes to revise crypto custody rules: abandon “physical segregation,” and state trusts and limited self-custody are allowed—opening the trillion-dollar institutional compliance door completely! The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has released a proposed revision to crypto custody rules for investment advisers and registered funds, officially rescinding the prior 2023 version’s highly controversial and nearly “impossible to implement” high-pressure custody ban. In recent years, even traditional institutions (RIAs) that wanted to buy and hold crypto assets have been tightly blocked by stringent and contradictory “compliance custodian” requirements. Now the SEC has finally given up pointless resistance and laid out an excellent compliance pathway that balances “risk prevention” with “practicality.”
Bitcoin Funding Rate Hits 10% as Open Interest Rebounds
🚨 Warning: Leverage is maxed out! BTC funding rate has surged to 10%, open interest has skyrocketed—big breakout/turning point countdown! Many people only watch K-line charts for bullish or bearish moves, but they ignore the derivatives market that’s going off like an alarm. At the moment, Bitcoin’s funding rate has already surged to an astonishing 10% (annualized). At the same time, open interest (OI) is showing a sharp, straight-line rebound. When these two figures are combined, it’s basically telling the entire market one thing: crazy off-exchange capital is going long at any cost with high leverage, and retail investors’ FOMO has reached its peak.
🚨 Stop slandering ETH as weak! Up 70.9% straight in Q3! Shutting down all the bearish “altcoin” doubters—before the surge in Q4, is there still a chance to get in? (Recommended to share and save)
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🔹 Data speaks: the real big sell-off reversal already happened:
Just wrapped up Q3, and Ethereum quietly surged 70.9%! It directly outperformed BTC’s同期 (same period) gain of 43.6%!
Those who used to shout “Ethereum can’t move”—all got slapped in the face!
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🔹 Why will the rebound in Q4 be even fiercer?
1️⃣ Rapid capital rotation: BTC consolidates at high levels, while major institutions are racing ahead to capture the liquidity increase from spot ETH ETFs! 2️⃣ On-chain deflation engine restarted: Layer 2 transaction volume explodes—staking and locking (TVL) both hit new highs! 3️⃣ Q4 seasonal tailwind: Based on historical 10-year data, Q4 is often when mainstream coins show the strongest breakout power!
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📌 Practical strategy & support levels (save screenshots recommended):
• Short-term: Range-trade and shake out near resistance; watch the strong support zone at 2,850 - 2,920 (buy in batches on pullbacks). • Medium/long-term: When the exchange rate finds its bottom, build positions in batches; the target is to go straight for the previous high breakout!
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🚨 On the first day of October, BTC, ETH, and BNB all bounce back together.
But there’s a signal even more important than the rise itself:
Price moves first, but the capital hasn’t fully confirmed yet.
Over the past period, large ETF inflows had returned strongly.
But after October begins:
🟢 BTC regains strength 🔥 ETH and BNB warm up in sync 💰 ETF capital is still in the market, but the inflow pace has cooled ⚠️ Spot demand and trading enthusiasm haven’t exploded in tandem
This creates the most critical contradiction for tonight:
Is the market’s price already pricing in the next wave of capital returning early, or did it take a step up without enough incremental funds?
If, next, ETF inflows and spot demand are amplified again, this bounce could upgrade from a “rebound” into a real trend.
But if capital continues to stand by—
The first bullish candle of October may only be a probe.
So tonight, I’m not focusing on how bullish things look.
You received what appeared to be a normal USDT payment, and your wallet also shows “USDT”.
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But this time, what Wall Street really wants to know might not be how much the EPS beat is.
Instead, it’s a question worth tens of trillions of dollars:
With all that money being burned by AI—are they actually starting to make profits yet?
In the past few years, tech giants have been疯狂 buying GPUs, building data centers, and racing for power and compute capacity.
Now the pressure is starting to show:
🤖 AI demand is still exploding 💰 Cloud providers’ capital expenditures continue to expand 🔥 Orders for AI chips and memory remain tight ⚠️ But the market is starting to ask: how long before the spending turns into profits?
Micron’s latest earnings report has already sent a signal—demand for AI infrastructure remains strong, and customers’ long-term purchasing commitments continue to increase.
But the real test is still ahead.
If the next round of tech giant earnings proves that:
AI revenue growth > AI spending growth
the market may once again price in the “AI productivity revolution.”
On the other hand, if profits can’t keep up with capital expenditures—
then these currently expensive AI valuations will, for the first time, truly face scrutiny.
And it’s not just about the US stock market.
Once tech-sector risk appetite changes, BTC and the entire crypto market could be repriced as well.
So for this earnings season, I’m only watching one question:
Is AI starting to print money—or still burning it?
Binance Pay teams up with PayPay to bring PayPay QR payments to visitors to Japan—10% off for a limited time!
This is a general announcement. The product and services mentioned here may not be available in your region. Dear users: Binance Pay is now available for international visitors traveling to Japan to pay with cryptocurrency at millions of locations across Japan that support PayPay. With this feature, travelers can scan the QR code of participating merchants, or show their own payment QR code for the merchant to scan, completing the payment directly from the cryptocurrency balance in their Binance account—no fuel fees. To celebrate this launch, eligible international visitors to Japan who pay with Binance Pay at participating merchants that support PayPay can enjoy a limited-time 10% instant discount.
BTC has just finished one of its strongest quarters in nearly two years, yet it pulled back repeatedly at the end of the quarter.
In Q3, it rose by more than 40%, and ETF flows returned on a large scale.
But in the last few days:
📉 BTC has been weakening continuously 💰 ETFs are still flowing in, but the pace has clearly cooled 📈 U.S. Treasury yields continue to suppress risk assets 🔥 Yet market sentiment remains high
This is exactly what’s worth being wary of—and what’s worth looking forward to:
Prices are cooling off, but the market hasn’t fully flipped into panic.
The biggest question now isn’t how much Q3 rose.
It’s—
At the start of Q4, will the profit-taking continue, or will a new round of capital take over again?
If BTC can hold steady after the consecutive pullbacks, the market may quickly start trading the “Q4 play.”
If it can’t, the large profits accumulated in Q3 may turn into fresh selling pressure.
🚨 Anthropic’s IPO filing—possibly the craziest document in the AI industry this year.
Anthropic, the company behind Claude, saw 2025 revenue of about $4.6 billion, up roughly 12-fold.
But what really sets the market on fire is another number:
The IPO valuation could exceed $2 trillion.
Meanwhile:
🚀 Revenue is growing about 12x year over year 💸 Operating losses still exceed $8 billion 🧠 Compute power and infrastructure spending keep skyrocketing ☁️ The scale of future cloud and infrastructure commitments is enormous 🏦 But Wall Street may still hand out a $2 trillion-level valuation
This means the capital markets aren’t really betting on how much Anthropic makes today.
They’re betting on—
Whether AI will ultimately become core infrastructure, just like the internet and electricity.
If Claude and AI Agents truly enter enterprise workflows, a $2 trillion deal could be trading the productivity revolution of the next decade.
But if AI revenue growth can’t keep up with compute costs, this could also become one of the most expensive growth stories in history.
So the real question isn’t:
“Is Anthropic too expensive?”
It’s:
Does AI really deserve to be a new $2 trillion giant?