Daily sharing

This week, BTC has not broken below 82,500 all along. Personally, I have been waiting for an upswing. Ultimately, on the evening of October 2, the upswing I expected did happen, reaching a high of 87,220, followed by a rapid pullback. In terms of overall structure, it is likely that the 4h-level rebound that started from 74,967 may have ended.

But overall, we still need to confirm that the daily rebound has ended. It is still necessary for the price to break below 80,000. See whether this level can be defended next week.

Short-term to medium-term trend direction

4h cycle primary direction: There is a chance that we may see a 4h-level decline. First, see whether this decline breaks below 80,000. If it does, then you can look for a pullback at the daily-chart level.

1h cycle direction: for the short term, it’s playing out a 1h-level down move; let’s see how strong the selling pressure is.

BTC short term

Short term: because market conditions change quickly, the article can only make an outlook/forecast for the market movement at the moment it was published. Short-term traders should pay attention to the latest changes in the行情—this is for reference only.

1H：

1）On the 1h timeframe, a 1h-level callback is currently in progress. First, observe whether 82500 breaks down. If it doesn’t, then it may continue to range for a few more days.

2）If the 1h-level down move breaks below 82,500, but it doesn’t break below 80,000, then the short term will still likely have a second 1h-level rebound. If the rebound can’t push past 85,500, then continue to watch whether the third 1h-level down move breaks below 80,000.

3）If next week we can successfully break down below 80,000, then we can look for an October pullback on a daily timeframe, potentially down to around 72,000 or even 70,000.

4）If the 4h-level pullback still doesn’t break below 80,000, then in the short term you still need to pay attention to the possibility of further rebounds to above 87,000.

5）There are already topping signals on the daily timeframe right now. Even if it doesn’t drop next week, it will basically be the end of the daily rebound the week after next. So being at the late stage of the daily-timeframe rebound right now is totally fine. For the medium-term spot positioning, you still need to wait for BTC to successfully complete the next daily-timeframe down move—that will be a good opportunity.

15M：

1）On the 1) 15-minute timeframe, a weekend consolidation has formed a central pivot. If it doesn’t break through 85900, then check whether it will drop from there and form a central-pivot exit segment on the 15-minute timeframe, falling below 83500.

2）Only after it re-breaks above 85,900 should you consider a short-term 1h rebound extension.

3）If the 15-minute down-move that leaves the segment breaks below 82,100, then consider that afterward there may be a third sell on the 15-minute timeframe, further extending this 1h-level down move.

ETH

1）As for Ethereum (ETH): currently, the daily chart has a top divergence, and the 2-day chart also has a top divergence—so it does have conditions for a phase top. However, we’re still missing a price anchor. If ETH can break below 2540, then we can basically fully confirm that the short-term move is a daily-timeframe pullback. From a side perspective, if it drops back below 2540, you can then enter from the right side to short and bet on a phase pullback.

2）For the short term, the inclination is that it will play out a 4h-level pullback from here.

3）The current 1h-level pullback likely hasn’t ended yet. Normally it still needs to dip below 2650 once. For the downside, watch 2600 and whether 2580 breaks down.