How many tokens is the $ENA that will be unlocked tomorrow—there are two competing market estimates that differ by eightfold: one side extrapolates from the old schedule to about 1.4 billion tokens, close to 14% of circulating supply; the other, labeled by RootData and Tokenomist, puts it at around 170 million, or roughly 1.7%. The foundation’s August announcement only gave the date, not the amount.
Which is right—I can’t tell. But I don’t think tomorrow is a dump day, and my reasoning is on-chain.
Arkham labels the address “Ethena: Gnosis Safe.” On October 3, it withdrew about 227 million tokens from Coinbase Prime, and this afternoon it withdrew another 55 million from Bybit. Together, those two transfers are already more than the entire unlock amount under the smaller-number estimate, and the direction is out of the exchange. The tags are speculation—project insiders haven’t explained these two transfers—but people who are preparing to sell generally don’t move like this.
Also, nobody is front-running on the order book. On September 30, trading volume was still $103 million; yesterday it dropped to only $21.9 million. Price then churned between 0.2353 and 0.2417 for almost 20 hours.
Let me admit this: on September 25, I said at 0.238 that the bullish momentum still hadn’t fully hit the coin. Two days later it touched 0.2946. Now it’s back around 0.237, and this time I’m on the other side.
And I’ll own this being wrong: after the unlock, the 1-hour candle closed below 0.2279—that is, the low from October 2 was broken to the downside, which suggests the “1.4 billion” estimate is correct, or that someone is waiting to sell in a place I didn’t notice.
Also, before reclaiming 0.2417, it’s not exactly “bad news fully out,” so there’s no need to rush.
#ENA #token unlock
Which is right—I can’t tell. But I don’t think tomorrow is a dump day, and my reasoning is on-chain.
Arkham labels the address “Ethena: Gnosis Safe.” On October 3, it withdrew about 227 million tokens from Coinbase Prime, and this afternoon it withdrew another 55 million from Bybit. Together, those two transfers are already more than the entire unlock amount under the smaller-number estimate, and the direction is out of the exchange. The tags are speculation—project insiders haven’t explained these two transfers—but people who are preparing to sell generally don’t move like this.
Also, nobody is front-running on the order book. On September 30, trading volume was still $103 million; yesterday it dropped to only $21.9 million. Price then churned between 0.2353 and 0.2417 for almost 20 hours.
Let me admit this: on September 25, I said at 0.238 that the bullish momentum still hadn’t fully hit the coin. Two days later it touched 0.2946. Now it’s back around 0.237, and this time I’m on the other side.
And I’ll own this being wrong: after the unlock, the 1-hour candle closed below 0.2279—that is, the low from October 2 was broken to the downside, which suggests the “1.4 billion” estimate is correct, or that someone is waiting to sell in a place I didn’t notice.
Also, before reclaiming 0.2417, it’s not exactly “bad news fully out,” so there’s no need to rush.
#ENA #token unlock
