17% in the trending charts isn’t a 17% risk.
The plaza is discussing “the probability of a rate hike in October falling to 17%.” CME says FedWatch only infers market expectations using federal funds futures prices; the Fed’s official website shows that the actual October FOMC meeting is on the 27th–28th. In other words, the probability will change with data and positioning—it’s not a policy commitment, nor is it proof that crypto can’t go down.
In the evening, I’m mainly watching two conditions: after the probability falls, can risk assets continue to strengthen? And if the good news is discussed enough, but the price no longer responds, then it’s time to guard against an expectations sell-off. The most dangerous thing in trading isn’t getting one number wrong—it’s increasing your position size after treating a probability as a conclusion.
Will you raise your position because the “rate-hike probability” has fallen, or will you wait for the price to confirm first? #SEC因拨款中断暂停加密ETF审查
The plaza is discussing “the probability of a rate hike in October falling to 17%.” CME says FedWatch only infers market expectations using federal funds futures prices; the Fed’s official website shows that the actual October FOMC meeting is on the 27th–28th. In other words, the probability will change with data and positioning—it’s not a policy commitment, nor is it proof that crypto can’t go down.
In the evening, I’m mainly watching two conditions: after the probability falls, can risk assets continue to strengthen? And if the good news is discussed enough, but the price no longer responds, then it’s time to guard against an expectations sell-off. The most dangerous thing in trading isn’t getting one number wrong—it’s increasing your position size after treating a probability as a conclusion.
Will you raise your position because the “rate-hike probability” has fallen, or will you wait for the price to confirm first? #SEC因拨款中断暂停加密ETF审查
