Are we approaching the altcoin season? A look at the 2024–2026 Bitcoin cycle

The crypto market has long followed cycles linked to the «Halving» event, and altcoins there follow a known pattern: they lag behind Bitcoin and then surge strongly. Where are we today?

Where do we stand right now?

Bitcoin hit an all-time high above $126,000 in late 2025.

The Altcoin Season Index remained near 30 in mid-2026, well below the 75 threshold that confirms altcoin season.

The index briefly crossed 50 in May 2026, but did not hold above that level.

Bitcoin dominance remained around 56% to 59% and failed to decline decisively.

Which indicators are worth watching?

Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D): A drop toward 55% or below is historically considered a sign of liquidity shifting elsewhere.

Altcoin Season Index: It must exceed 75 and hold above that level. Its reading reflects the percentage of cryptocurrencies that outperformed Bitcoin over 90 days.

Trading volumes and open interest in altcoins.

ETH performance versus BTC.

Why might this cycle be different?

ETFs and institutions entered the market, concentrating liquidity in Bitcoin, while the number of cryptocurrencies in circulation multiplied many times over. As a result, the rule that “altcoins surge after Bitcoin” is no longer guaranteed. A coin may rise in dollar terms yet still underperform Bitcoin, so relative performance is what matters.

Altcoin season has not yet been confirmed, and patience and disciplined risk management matter more than chasing predictions.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly risky.