This cycle for BTC may not yet have reached the typical bear-market bottom, because long-term holders have not, from start to finish, as a whole, fallen into unrealized losses.
On October 4, Glassnode said that BTC long-term holders (LTH) have remained profitable throughout this cycle. In the past few bear markets, LTH-MVRV would dip below 1 at the cycle low, meaning long-term holders as a whole entered unrealized losses.
But this time, the lowest LTH-MVRV is still above 1, and it has already started rising again.
This suggests that this market cycle has not shown the bear-market feature commonly seen in the past: “long-term holders are fully trapped → panic selling and cutting losses → a reshuffling of coins.”
So if we label the current行情 directly as a bear-market major bottom, I would be fairly cautious.
When LTH-MVRV rises, it indicates the cost structure of long-term holdings remains healthy. If BTC prices continue to strengthen, long-term holders’ profits may expand, and the market could enter a phase where “old coins are unwilling to sell, while new capital continues to step in.”
However, this indicator alone is not a standalone buy signal. You also need to consider ETF fund flows and BTC’s price structure together.
If LTH-MVRV is rising + ETFs continue to see net inflows + BTC breaks out on expanding volume, that’s broadly bullish;
if LTH-MVRV is rising but BTC is weak and ETFs continue to record net outflows, it means fundamental signals have not yet translated into a price trend;
only if LTH-MVRV falls back below 1 again, and BTC loses key support levels, would we need to worry that market structure is clearly deteriorating.
My view is that the long-term holder cost structure in this cycle is not the same as the typical bear-market bottoms seen in 2018 and 2022. Next, the focus is on whether LTH-MVRV can keep moving higher, and whether ETF capital flows can continue to return.
If long-term holders keep remaining in profit, BTC’s ability to withstand downside may be stronger than the market expects.
On October 4, Glassnode said that BTC long-term holders (LTH) have remained profitable throughout this cycle. In the past few bear markets, LTH-MVRV would dip below 1 at the cycle low, meaning long-term holders as a whole entered unrealized losses.
But this time, the lowest LTH-MVRV is still above 1, and it has already started rising again.
This suggests that this market cycle has not shown the bear-market feature commonly seen in the past: “long-term holders are fully trapped → panic selling and cutting losses → a reshuffling of coins.”
So if we label the current行情 directly as a bear-market major bottom, I would be fairly cautious.
When LTH-MVRV rises, it indicates the cost structure of long-term holdings remains healthy. If BTC prices continue to strengthen, long-term holders’ profits may expand, and the market could enter a phase where “old coins are unwilling to sell, while new capital continues to step in.”
However, this indicator alone is not a standalone buy signal. You also need to consider ETF fund flows and BTC’s price structure together.
If LTH-MVRV is rising + ETFs continue to see net inflows + BTC breaks out on expanding volume, that’s broadly bullish;
if LTH-MVRV is rising but BTC is weak and ETFs continue to record net outflows, it means fundamental signals have not yet translated into a price trend;
only if LTH-MVRV falls back below 1 again, and BTC loses key support levels, would we need to worry that market structure is clearly deteriorating.
My view is that the long-term holder cost structure in this cycle is not the same as the typical bear-market bottoms seen in 2018 and 2022. Next, the focus is on whether LTH-MVRV can keep moving higher, and whether ETF capital flows can continue to return.
If long-term holders keep remaining in profit, BTC’s ability to withstand downside may be stronger than the market expects.