In a week, the market has almost completely unwound the October hike—yet $BTC is still sitting below 87k. They cut the rate, but didn’t buy the price.
Numbers (Glassnode Macro Special 3 Oct / BLS / futures). Probability of a hike at the Oct 28 meeting: from ~66% on Monday down to ~22% by Friday—after Williams (“no urgency”), softer core PCE, and NFP +29k vs. consensus ~84k. Three-month hiring ~51k/month—less than a third of the 2010s average (~183k). The 2s10s curve widened again to ~42 bps (from ~20 bps around the September hike), but the 10y is still around ~5.2%. $BTC over the same week is about +1% and early Sunday is around 84.7–84.8k—after Friday’s fail above 87k. Through December, futures still price in roughly ~24 bps of hikes; the next check is CPI on Oct 14.
My take: the market bought “no urgency,” not risk-on. As long as the long end of the curve doesn’t let go of 5.2%, spot $BTC stays in a range: hike priced out ≠ cheap money. Friday’s squeeze in shorts into NFP and the pullback after the release showed the same thing—movement driven by positioning, not by new demand. The real test isn’t the 22% for October; it’s CPI on Oct 14: a hot print will bring the hike back into play faster than any Fed speech.
Question: Will $BTC break 87k before CPI on Oct 14—or do we first wait for 10y to let go of 5.2%?
$BTC #Bitcoin #Fed #CPI
Numbers (Glassnode Macro Special 3 Oct / BLS / futures). Probability of a hike at the Oct 28 meeting: from ~66% on Monday down to ~22% by Friday—after Williams (“no urgency”), softer core PCE, and NFP +29k vs. consensus ~84k. Three-month hiring ~51k/month—less than a third of the 2010s average (~183k). The 2s10s curve widened again to ~42 bps (from ~20 bps around the September hike), but the 10y is still around ~5.2%. $BTC over the same week is about +1% and early Sunday is around 84.7–84.8k—after Friday’s fail above 87k. Through December, futures still price in roughly ~24 bps of hikes; the next check is CPI on Oct 14.
My take: the market bought “no urgency,” not risk-on. As long as the long end of the curve doesn’t let go of 5.2%, spot $BTC stays in a range: hike priced out ≠ cheap money. Friday’s squeeze in shorts into NFP and the pullback after the release showed the same thing—movement driven by positioning, not by new demand. The real test isn’t the 22% for October; it’s CPI on Oct 14: a hot print will bring the hike back into play faster than any Fed speech.
Question: Will $BTC break 87k before CPI on Oct 14—or do we first wait for 10y to let go of 5.2%?
$BTC #Bitcoin #Fed #CPI