In the week from late September to early October, $BTC made a textbook run of “rising high—giving back.” On September 30, U.S. core PCE year-over-year came in at 3.0%, below the expected 3.3%. The data initially pushed Bitcoin briefly up to between $85,000 and $85,500, but within a few hours it fell back below $84,000. On October 2, weak employment data lifted it again toward around $87,100, but it also failed to hold. Within 24 hours, nearly 79,000 people worldwide were liquidated, totaling about $291 million.
The key lies on the denominator side. After the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield bottomed at 5.20%, it rebounded to 5.28%—5.30%, staying at the highest levels since 2002. The 30-year yield held around 5.62%. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened in sync, reaching a three-month high. Higher yields mean risk-free assets offer better returns, directly diluting the appeal of assets like Bitcoin that do not produce cash flows. At the same time, big whales took profits around $87,000, and weekly net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and crypto ETPs plunged from the previous week’s roughly $3.2 billion to about $123 million.
My view: the $86,500 hurdle isn’t really a price issue—it’s a rate issue. With inflation stuck at 3.0% for two consecutive months and rate-cut certainty fading, as long as the 10-year yield doesn’t come down, every time Bitcoin surges, it looks more like short covering than new money flowing in. From a technical standpoint, $87,000 is the upper bound of the channel from more than two weeks ago, and $82,500 is the lower bound. Until the range breaks, chasing after a breakout isn’t very attractive.
The only signal that truly matters is this: when will the 10-year yield actually start to fall meaningfully? Do you think it breaks first below $82,500, or first holds above $87,000?
#Bitcoin falls after rising to $86.5万美元
The key lies on the denominator side. After the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield bottomed at 5.20%, it rebounded to 5.28%—5.30%, staying at the highest levels since 2002. The 30-year yield held around 5.62%. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened in sync, reaching a three-month high. Higher yields mean risk-free assets offer better returns, directly diluting the appeal of assets like Bitcoin that do not produce cash flows. At the same time, big whales took profits around $87,000, and weekly net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and crypto ETPs plunged from the previous week’s roughly $3.2 billion to about $123 million.
My view: the $86,500 hurdle isn’t really a price issue—it’s a rate issue. With inflation stuck at 3.0% for two consecutive months and rate-cut certainty fading, as long as the 10-year yield doesn’t come down, every time Bitcoin surges, it looks more like short covering than new money flowing in. From a technical standpoint, $87,000 is the upper bound of the channel from more than two weeks ago, and $82,500 is the lower bound. Until the range breaks, chasing after a breakout isn’t very attractive.
The only signal that truly matters is this: when will the 10-year yield actually start to fall meaningfully? Do you think it breaks first below $82,500, or first holds above $87,000?
#Bitcoin falls after rising to $86.5万美元