New developments have emerged in the Iran-US negotiations, but it is still not possible to directly interpret this as a risk being lifted.
On October 4, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that Iran has responded to the U.S. proposal. The U.S. proposal continues to focus mainly on the nuclear issue, but Iran wants to shift the negotiation focus to the Strait of Hormuz.
This means that while both sides are still in communication, the core disagreement has not been resolved. Iran is more concerned about passage through the strait and energy transportation, while the U.S. continues to focus on the nuclear issue. Whether the talks can produce a specific implementation plan is what the market truly cares about next.
For financial markets, the transmission path is still clear:
Strait of Hormuz risk → crude oil transportation costs → oil prices → inflation expectations → U.S. Treasury yields → rate-cut expectations → BTC and risk assets.
If the two sides make substantive progress on issues such as strait passage and energy transportation, oil prices and the geopolitical risk premium could fall, U.S. Treasury yields could move lower, and BTC may regain liquidity support.
But if the negotiations continue to stall, the Strait of Hormuz risk could heat up again, oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields would rise in tandem, and BTC would need to guard against further pressure on risk assets.
So in the short term, I’m more focused on U.S. Treasury yields rather than the negotiation news itself. Pay attention to three signals: crude oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, and BTC capital flows.
Communication does not equal risk being lifted, and a negotiation response does not equal a successful negotiation. What can truly change the market’s risk premium is whether the Strait of Hormuz can restore stable passage, and whether the two sides have subsequent, concrete implementation steps.
At this stage, we still cannot simply treat Iran’s response to the U.S. proposal as a BTC positive just yet.
On October 4, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that Iran has responded to the U.S. proposal. The U.S. proposal continues to focus mainly on the nuclear issue, but Iran wants to shift the negotiation focus to the Strait of Hormuz.
This means that while both sides are still in communication, the core disagreement has not been resolved. Iran is more concerned about passage through the strait and energy transportation, while the U.S. continues to focus on the nuclear issue. Whether the talks can produce a specific implementation plan is what the market truly cares about next.
For financial markets, the transmission path is still clear:
Strait of Hormuz risk → crude oil transportation costs → oil prices → inflation expectations → U.S. Treasury yields → rate-cut expectations → BTC and risk assets.
If the two sides make substantive progress on issues such as strait passage and energy transportation, oil prices and the geopolitical risk premium could fall, U.S. Treasury yields could move lower, and BTC may regain liquidity support.
But if the negotiations continue to stall, the Strait of Hormuz risk could heat up again, oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields would rise in tandem, and BTC would need to guard against further pressure on risk assets.
So in the short term, I’m more focused on U.S. Treasury yields rather than the negotiation news itself. Pay attention to three signals: crude oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, and BTC capital flows.
Communication does not equal risk being lifted, and a negotiation response does not equal a successful negotiation. What can truly change the market’s risk premium is whether the Strait of Hormuz can restore stable passage, and whether the two sides have subsequent, concrete implementation steps.
At this stage, we still cannot simply treat Iran’s response to the U.S. proposal as a BTC positive just yet.