In the third quarter of 2026, XRP did something unprecedented in history: it posted gains in each of three consecutive months—July, August, and September. Broken down month by month: July was about +2%, August about +30%, and September about +8%, for a cumulative gain of over 43% in the quarter. In past years, the third quarter as a whole might also be up, but within the quarter there’s always been at least one down month—this time is the first time all three months were green.
There are two driving factors. First is ETF expectations: the filing process for a spot XRP ETF is moving forward. At the end of September, a revised prospectus was submitted, with a management fee rate of 0.34%. Second is supply contraction: exchange-held XRP fell from about 12.9 billion in April to about 11.0 billion, a reduction of nearly 2 billion. In September, there was also a round of short-squeeze activity that amplified the rally. Together, these two forces create a “resonance” of “expectations + available supply,” not just a wave of资金情绪.
But what I want to talk about more is the fourth quarter. Historically, October is XRP’s worst month, with an average return of about -4.71%. October 2024 and 2025 were both down months. Meanwhile, November and December have been clearly stronger, with an average quarterly increase of about 13.3%. Right now, $XRP is near $1.50, with a market cap of about $95 billion. On the weekly chart, it has just broken above a downward trendline that has been suppressing it since July 2025.
My take is somewhat neutral: the monthly triple-gain streak itself is an indicator of sentiment—it tells you “the money is already in there,” not “it still has to go up.” The key levels are very clear. If the weekly chart can hold above $1.70, the probability of upside in the fourth quarter rises significantly; if it can’t, pulling back to the $1.30–$1.40 support zone wouldn’t be surprising. In other words, the odds now depend on where you enter—not on how good the story sounds.
Are you treating October for XRP as a “cursed month” to avoid, or as an opportunity to buy the dip and accumulate? Share where you’re positioned.
#XRP First Time in a Third Quarter to Close Higher for Three Straight Months
There are two driving factors. First is ETF expectations: the filing process for a spot XRP ETF is moving forward. At the end of September, a revised prospectus was submitted, with a management fee rate of 0.34%. Second is supply contraction: exchange-held XRP fell from about 12.9 billion in April to about 11.0 billion, a reduction of nearly 2 billion. In September, there was also a round of short-squeeze activity that amplified the rally. Together, these two forces create a “resonance” of “expectations + available supply,” not just a wave of资金情绪.
But what I want to talk about more is the fourth quarter. Historically, October is XRP’s worst month, with an average return of about -4.71%. October 2024 and 2025 were both down months. Meanwhile, November and December have been clearly stronger, with an average quarterly increase of about 13.3%. Right now, $XRP is near $1.50, with a market cap of about $95 billion. On the weekly chart, it has just broken above a downward trendline that has been suppressing it since July 2025.
My take is somewhat neutral: the monthly triple-gain streak itself is an indicator of sentiment—it tells you “the money is already in there,” not “it still has to go up.” The key levels are very clear. If the weekly chart can hold above $1.70, the probability of upside in the fourth quarter rises significantly; if it can’t, pulling back to the $1.30–$1.40 support zone wouldn’t be surprising. In other words, the odds now depend on where you enter—not on how good the story sounds.
Are you treating October for XRP as a “cursed month” to avoid, or as an opportunity to buy the dip and accumulate? Share where you’re positioned.
#XRP First Time in a Third Quarter to Close Higher for Three Straight Months