Big boost for crude oil!
The Strait of Hormuz hasn’t been completely blocked, but crude oil is now being exported using a more expensive and more complex method. What the market is truly trading isn’t simply “whether there is crude oil,” but “whether crude oil can be delivered to buyers stably and at low cost.”
On October 4, Iraq’s state-owned tanker company confirmed that it has transported 2 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz using a large tanker, and then transferred it to buyers waiting outside the strait. This is the company’s first time in decades to adopt a ship-to-ship transshipment method.
Gulf oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are also using similar approaches, which has strained transshipment capacity in the Gulf of Oman. VLCC freight rates once climbed to as high as $1.27 million per day. To attract buyers to “come pick up the cargo,” Iraq is also willing to offer a discount of more than $20 per barrel.
This shows that the risks at Hormuz are shifting from “transport disruptions” to “high-cost transportation.”
The transmission path to the market is still fairly clear:
Hormuz risk rises → transportation costs increase → oil prices stay elevated → inflation expectations heat up → U.S. Treasury yields rise → rate-cut expectations face pressure → volatility in risk assets increases → BTC comes under pressure.
But for now, you can’t simply interpret it as: if oil prices rise, BTC will definitely fall. Gulf oil producers are looking for alternative shipping solutions, and Middle East crude exports are gradually recovering too. The market is adjusting to the new shipping model.
In the short term, focus on three indicators: oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, and BTC capital flows.
If oil prices continue to stay high, U.S. Treasury yields rise in tandem, and BTC breaks below key support again, you should guard against further pullbacks in risk assets.
If crude oil transportation gradually resumes, oil prices fall, and U.S. Treasury yields decline in sync, BTC may instead regain liquidity support.
My view is that the biggest change for Hormuz right now isn’t a complete shutdown, but a clear rise in transportation costs and risk premiums. The impact may not be as abrupt or severe as a one-time full blockade, but it could last longer.
Going forward, the market should watch U.S. Treasury yields more closely—not just oil prices.
The Strait of Hormuz hasn’t been completely blocked, but crude oil is now being exported using a more expensive and more complex method. What the market is truly trading isn’t simply “whether there is crude oil,” but “whether crude oil can be delivered to buyers stably and at low cost.”
On October 4, Iraq’s state-owned tanker company confirmed that it has transported 2 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz using a large tanker, and then transferred it to buyers waiting outside the strait. This is the company’s first time in decades to adopt a ship-to-ship transshipment method.
Gulf oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are also using similar approaches, which has strained transshipment capacity in the Gulf of Oman. VLCC freight rates once climbed to as high as $1.27 million per day. To attract buyers to “come pick up the cargo,” Iraq is also willing to offer a discount of more than $20 per barrel.
This shows that the risks at Hormuz are shifting from “transport disruptions” to “high-cost transportation.”
The transmission path to the market is still fairly clear:
Hormuz risk rises → transportation costs increase → oil prices stay elevated → inflation expectations heat up → U.S. Treasury yields rise → rate-cut expectations face pressure → volatility in risk assets increases → BTC comes under pressure.
But for now, you can’t simply interpret it as: if oil prices rise, BTC will definitely fall. Gulf oil producers are looking for alternative shipping solutions, and Middle East crude exports are gradually recovering too. The market is adjusting to the new shipping model.
In the short term, focus on three indicators: oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, and BTC capital flows.
If oil prices continue to stay high, U.S. Treasury yields rise in tandem, and BTC breaks below key support again, you should guard against further pullbacks in risk assets.
If crude oil transportation gradually resumes, oil prices fall, and U.S. Treasury yields decline in sync, BTC may instead regain liquidity support.
My view is that the biggest change for Hormuz right now isn’t a complete shutdown, but a clear rise in transportation costs and risk premiums. The impact may not be as abrupt or severe as a one-time full blockade, but it could last longer.
Going forward, the market should watch U.S. Treasury yields more closely—not just oil prices.