Although easing non-farm payrolls has pushed the rate-hike probability down to 17%, the move of $BTC has still run into a decisive sell-off at the $87,000 resistance level, which is being strongly pressured. The core disagreement in cross-market pricing lies in the disconnect between short- and long-end interest rates: short-term funds are front-running while the policy pause is ongoing, yet the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains stuck above 5%. The liquidity valve has not truly loosened.
Oil prices boosted by geopolitical developments have reinforced inflation resilience, forcing long-end U.S. Treasury yields to stay rigid, directly suppressing valuation recovery for high-risk assets. If the market’s trade of a macro pause cannot be transmitted smoothly into a decline in long-end yields, relying solely on sentiment-driven hedging makes it easy to suffer a liquidity backlash at key resistance levels.
For the bulls to maintain the weekly structure, $87,000 remains a must-volume milestone to hold. The next key variable is whether long-end U.S. Treasury yields can break the 5% stalemate and start to decline. If long-end rates continue to grind higher under inflation expectations, the positioning build-up below $87,000 will face tests of profit-taking and bull de-risking.
Oil prices boosted by geopolitical developments have reinforced inflation resilience, forcing long-end U.S. Treasury yields to stay rigid, directly suppressing valuation recovery for high-risk assets. If the market’s trade of a macro pause cannot be transmitted smoothly into a decline in long-end yields, relying solely on sentiment-driven hedging makes it easy to suffer a liquidity backlash at key resistance levels.
For the bulls to maintain the weekly structure, $87,000 remains a must-volume milestone to hold. The next key variable is whether long-end U.S. Treasury yields can break the 5% stalemate and start to decline. If long-end rates continue to grind higher under inflation expectations, the positioning build-up below $87,000 will face tests of profit-taking and bull de-risking.