#俄罗斯加强与伊朗关系 Li Duo
1. Russia and Iran deepen energy cooperation and local-currency settlement, reducing both sides’ reliance on the US dollar, which is favorable to the non-USD asset narrative.
2. Geopolitical risks rise; crude oil and gold gain support from safe-haven buying, indirectly boosting the short-term sentiment of risk assets.
3. The Eurasian Economic Union and Iran’s free-trade agreement take effect, expanding energy trade channels and benefiting oil and gas supply bargaining power.
Negatives
1. Closer ties between Russia and Iran may prompt the United States to intensify sanctions on the two countries, increasing the probability of a Middle East geopolitical conflict breaking out and suppressing global risk appetite.
2. Shipping risk premiums in the Strait of Hormuz increase; if the situation escalates and pushes up oil prices again, it could reignite inflation expectations and constrain the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting room.
3. Higher geopolitical uncertainty increases the demand for capital to seek safety; funds may flow out of high-volatility risk assets.
Outlook
In the near term, expect a sideways-to-choppy range. The key focus is whether the US will introduce new sanctions and whether the Middle East situation will escalate; if there is no sudden conflict, it will likely be limited to a strategic cooperation message, with modest market impact.
1. Russia and Iran deepen energy cooperation and local-currency settlement, reducing both sides’ reliance on the US dollar, which is favorable to the non-USD asset narrative.
2. Geopolitical risks rise; crude oil and gold gain support from safe-haven buying, indirectly boosting the short-term sentiment of risk assets.
3. The Eurasian Economic Union and Iran’s free-trade agreement take effect, expanding energy trade channels and benefiting oil and gas supply bargaining power.
Negatives
1. Closer ties between Russia and Iran may prompt the United States to intensify sanctions on the two countries, increasing the probability of a Middle East geopolitical conflict breaking out and suppressing global risk appetite.
2. Shipping risk premiums in the Strait of Hormuz increase; if the situation escalates and pushes up oil prices again, it could reignite inflation expectations and constrain the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting room.
3. Higher geopolitical uncertainty increases the demand for capital to seek safety; funds may flow out of high-volatility risk assets.
Outlook
In the near term, expect a sideways-to-choppy range. The key focus is whether the US will introduce new sanctions and whether the Middle East situation will escalate; if there is no sudden conflict, it will likely be limited to a strategic cooperation message, with modest market impact.