BTC $84,841 (+0.17%)｜ETH $2,695 (+0.48%)

Sunday’s market was relatively quiet, but these past few days haven’t been light. On 10/2, the US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only about 29,000, far below expectations. The market briefly priced in the idea that the “October Fed would stay put,” and Bitcoin surged to about $87,085, then quickly dropped back. Around 10/3 it slid again to the $84,600 area. CoinGlass shows that within about 24 hours, over $430 million worth of contracts were liquidated, with longs accounting for about 74%. $87K was pushed up to again for the second time in two weeks—and it came back down. The short-term upside longs were clearly shaken out in a round of whipsaws.

Institutional funds are also choosing sides. On 10/1, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $103 million in a single day (BlackRock IBIT about $196 million leading the charge). On the same day, spot ETH ETFs continued to see outflows of about $55 million, with total outflows over three consecutive days reaching roughly $118 million. Money is still flowing into crypto, but the priority is clearly tilted toward Bitcoin; meanwhile, Ethereum is temporarily cooling off.

Citi this week also raised its 12-month targets: BTC from $82,000 to $113,000, and ETH from $2,240 to $3,028—while assuming that over the next year there will still be about $5 billion in net inflows into crypto investment products. The long-term institutional narrative is somewhat bullish, but in the short term, price action is still stuck at the $87K resistance after deleveraging and liquidation, with consolidation underway.

On the macro front, New York Fed President Williams (9/29) and Fed Vice Chair Jefferson (10/1) both lean toward the view that there might be one more rate hike before year-end, but there’s no need to rush. The market has trimmed the odds of an October rate hike from around 70% downward. Next week’s focus will be on the 10/14 CPI and the 10/27–28 FOMC meeting. Risk appetite has room to breathe, but the rate path hasn’t been set, so crypto is unlikely to surge in one direction only.

From a tech/policy angle: the White House has formed a “Super Intelligence Force” led by National Intelligence Director Jay Clayton, tasked with delivering an AI risk and government responsibility assessment within 120 days. Treasury Secretary Bessent also criticized the AI community’s apocalyptic warnings as too alarmist, arguing that labs should shoulder responsibility themselves. With Washington taking a more permissive stance toward AI, the story of AI capital expenditures can still hold up, and the funding levels for risk assets benefit accordingly.

My take: in the short term, the market is entering a “$84K–$87K tug-of-war” phase. Spot ETFs are still willing to buy BTC, but a portion of the leveraged long positions has already been cut down. Don’t rush to chase price until it breaks above $87K. ETH has relatively weaker funding versus BTC—monitor whether outflows can stop. Over the weekend, focus on positioning and leverage. Before next week’s CPI and FOMC, volatility could expand again at any time.