Many people are discussing the cycle of this bull run, still using the old framework from past halving cycles, simply focusing on the halving and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rates to predict market moves.

My core judgment: this is the last round of the bull market in the crypto Genesis cycle. The duration of the行情 won’t be very long, and there won’t be frequent deep pullbacks on the scale of a 50% cut as seen in the past. Meanwhile, altcoins will see a concentrated surge. And the true endpoint of the行情 is the moment when the U.S. comprehensive crypto bill is formally passed and comes into effect. After that, it will no longer be the Genesis cycle; instead, it becomes a branch of a mature, regulated financial market, entering a mature cycle and moving in sync with global financial markets.

Underlying logic:

Before the bill is implemented, the market’s tug-of-war is centered on regulatory expectations. With the regulatory boundaries still unclear and the rules not yet set, there is room for valuation imagination—providing the foundation for speculation by institutional capital and narratives around RWA tokenization of U.S. stocks. This is also the core source of the on-chain infrastructure storyline for U.S. stocks involving UNI, ONDO, AAVE, LINK, MORPHO, ENA, and ZRO.

Once the comprehensive congressional crypto bill is officially passed and rolled out, the regulatory framework will be settled in one shot:

1. All long-term expectations are fully realized—typical good news that’s already priced in;

2. The crypto industry shifts completely from the grey-zone innovation track to a traditional finance branch under full regulation;

3. The encryption genesis cycle comes to an end here. The era of wild growth driven by the halving bounty is over, and it will be hard to recreate such a broad-based bull market where everything rallies.

Market timing outlook:

The capital rotation order remains BTC and ETH as the base. First, the market will trade the underlying infrastructure, and as risk appetite rises, a large wave of altcoins will cluster and surge.

At the peak of the bull market, the FOMO phase likely occurs around the time of the bill vote and before/after it is implemented. Institutional capital will position itself early, and then gradually realize profits and exit in batches around the implementation.

Of course, short-term pullbacks and around 10% fluctuations are likely to occur repeatedly, but before the bill is implemented, it’s hard to see a historical-level deep correction.

The mainline infrastructure is the foundation of the market. Keep the overall market stable; the market’s upside elasticity and excess returns are concentrated in the mid-to-late stage, when altcoins explode.

After the bill is implemented, crypto is no longer an experiment in a new world—it’s just an extension of traditional finance. Going forward, the market will shift toward mature institutional markets.