【When you find that everyone around you is talking about FIL】
Yesterday in the group chat, I saw three newcomers ask at the same time whether FIL can still be entered. I knew it was time to say something.
This isn’t bearish—it’s a reminder of risk.
Right now, FNG is 65 and the weekly average is 70. The whole market sentiment is hovering in the greed zone. In this kind of moment, what’s most likely to go wrong isn’t the market itself, but people’s mindset—when it rises, you think it will keep rising; when it falls, you think it’s a chance. The ICO top in 2017, the DeFi summer in 2021, the MEME frenzy—every time it’s the same script.
FIL’s situation is relatively special right now.
On valuation: from the peak, the drawdown is nearly 100%. You could say it’s cheap—it really is. But when I actually tested many so-called “cheap” assets, I found the “cheap” ones usually become even cheaper. In the Filecoin space, I’ve researched their storage-demand data. To be honest, real-world business adoption is still in the early stage, and there’s a big gap compared with traditional cloud-storage providers.
BTC’s market share at 58.6% is a signal. When BTC dominance is that high, the capital structure tends to have an “exclusion” effect—coins like FIL, which are less mainstream, will have weaker elasticity.
I’m not saying this to tell you FIL is going to fall. I’m saying: going long in the greed zone isn’t a great deal on value. If you already hold it, at least take some profits in batches; if you want to enter, wouldn’t waiting for a pullback be better?
Have you hedged the risk? I suggest everyone seriously think about that.
Yesterday in the group chat, I saw three newcomers ask at the same time whether FIL can still be entered. I knew it was time to say something.
This isn’t bearish—it’s a reminder of risk.
Right now, FNG is 65 and the weekly average is 70. The whole market sentiment is hovering in the greed zone. In this kind of moment, what’s most likely to go wrong isn’t the market itself, but people’s mindset—when it rises, you think it will keep rising; when it falls, you think it’s a chance. The ICO top in 2017, the DeFi summer in 2021, the MEME frenzy—every time it’s the same script.
FIL’s situation is relatively special right now.
On valuation: from the peak, the drawdown is nearly 100%. You could say it’s cheap—it really is. But when I actually tested many so-called “cheap” assets, I found the “cheap” ones usually become even cheaper. In the Filecoin space, I’ve researched their storage-demand data. To be honest, real-world business adoption is still in the early stage, and there’s a big gap compared with traditional cloud-storage providers.
BTC’s market share at 58.6% is a signal. When BTC dominance is that high, the capital structure tends to have an “exclusion” effect—coins like FIL, which are less mainstream, will have weaker elasticity.
I’m not saying this to tell you FIL is going to fall. I’m saying: going long in the greed zone isn’t a great deal on value. If you already hold it, at least take some profits in batches; if you want to enter, wouldn’t waiting for a pullback be better?
Have you hedged the risk? I suggest everyone seriously think about that.