Ahmed Ali Nizamani

Greed Index 68, $BTC — should you chase or run? I went through the data from the past four years 👀

When people see “the market is greedy,” some want to chase the rally, while others prepare to short. But the same 68 can lead to completely different outcomes.

💡 I looked at the dates from October 4, 2022 to October 3, 2026 when Alternative.me was exactly 68, and there were 19 of them. Using the BTC daily close on those dates as the reference:
▸ 7 days later, 10 rises and 9 falls;
▸ 30 days later, also 10 rises and 9 falls.

Note that these 19 dates include consecutive or adjacent samples, and the follow-up observation windows also overlap. They cannot be treated as 19 independent trades, and 10/19 should not be packaged as a long-only win rate. The sample is small, and fees are not deducted.

Looking at a few examples makes the difference clearer:
1️⃣ On April 14, 2023, the index was 68.
BTC closed at about $30,500 that day, fell about 10.5% 7 days later, and about 11.7% 30 days later. Sentiment was hot, but price still pulled back.

2️⃣ On November 7, 2023, the index was also 68.
BTC closed at about $35,400, rose about 0.3% 7 days later, and about 22.2% 30 days later. If you assume a top just because greed appears, you might get out too early.

3️⃣ On July 26, 2024, it was 68 again.
BTC closed at about $67,900, fell about 9.6% 7 days later, and about 5.3% 30 days later. The same reading did not replicate the previous rally.

4️⃣ On June 17, 2025, the index was 68.
BTC closed at about $104,600, rose about 1.4% 7 days later, and about 14.0% 30 days later. Greed can also accompany trend continuation.

These comparisons remind me: one number cannot capture the trend, buying pressure, and market environment at that moment.
And Alternative.me’s calculation itself already includes price movement, momentum, and volume. When price rises, it can push the index higher; then using the index to prove “price will keep rising” can easily circle back to the starting point.

I’d look one step further: did this 68 rise gradually from fear, or did it retreat from an even greedier level? Is price holding after a breakout, or repeatedly spiking and fading?

Tonight, on Sunday, I’ll also keep an eye on the tape. If it breaks out and then retests and holds, I’ll keep watching for continuation; if it spikes and falls back into the range, I’ll lower my expectations of chasing. Especially in leveraged trading, don’t use an emotion gauge as a reason to add size. 🙈

Price action has the final say.

* NFA, DYOR

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