The October Fed rate-hike story has changed quickly.
After the September jobs report showed only 29,000 jobs added and unemployment rising to 4.2%, expectations for another Fed hike dropped sharply. Early Friday, market pricing put the October hike odds around 17%. Later reports pushed that probability below 15%, showing just how fast expectations can move when fresh economic data hits.
That matters for crypto because interest-rate expectations affect liquidity, Treasury yields, the dollar and overall risk appetite.
But here is the part many traders may overlook: a lower October hike probability does not mean the Fed is suddenly turning friendly toward risk assets.
The Fed already raised rates in September to 3.75%-4.00%, and officials have repeatedly kept another hike on the table for later in 2026. Reuters also reported that Fed officials were leaning toward waiting for more data before making another move.
So the real question is not simply whether October brings a hike.
The bigger question is what happens to inflation, employment and bond yields before the October 27-28 meeting.
I'm
For Bitcoin and the wider crypto market, softer Fed expectations may provide breathing room. But one weak jobs report does not erase the inflation problem.
Markets can change their mind again very quickly.
#FedOctoberRateHikeOddsFallTo17%
$AIN
$SIGMA
$BTC
After the September jobs report showed only 29,000 jobs added and unemployment rising to 4.2%, expectations for another Fed hike dropped sharply. Early Friday, market pricing put the October hike odds around 17%. Later reports pushed that probability below 15%, showing just how fast expectations can move when fresh economic data hits.
That matters for crypto because interest-rate expectations affect liquidity, Treasury yields, the dollar and overall risk appetite.
But here is the part many traders may overlook: a lower October hike probability does not mean the Fed is suddenly turning friendly toward risk assets.
The Fed already raised rates in September to 3.75%-4.00%, and officials have repeatedly kept another hike on the table for later in 2026. Reuters also reported that Fed officials were leaning toward waiting for more data before making another move.
So the real question is not simply whether October brings a hike.
The bigger question is what happens to inflation, employment and bond yields before the October 27-28 meeting.
I'm
For Bitcoin and the wider crypto market, softer Fed expectations may provide breathing room. But one weak jobs report does not erase the inflation problem.
Markets can change their mind again very quickly.
#FedOctoberRateHikeOddsFallTo17%
$AIN
$SIGMA
$BTC
