In the US, September nonfarm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs, far below the expected 90,000. The August figure was also revised down by 133,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. CME data shows the probability that the interest rate will be kept unchanged in October rose to 83.9%, while the probability of a rate hike fell to 16.1%. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury briefly climbed to 5.36%, and the US dollar index hit a 17-month high. After the data was released, BTC briefly surged to $87,220, then fully retraced: on October 3 it closed at $84,753, and on October 4 it was $84,802, +0.22% over 24 hours (Binance spot, Beijing time 10:00). The Fear & Greed Index fell from 67 to 65. ETH was $2,694, +0.55%, and BNB was $784, +1.96%. US spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of $103 million on October 1, while ETH funds recorded a third consecutive day of net outflows. Trader Doctor Profit said he has already opened shorts at 86,200, and will add shorts from 86,500 to 89,500, targeting $79,000. Personal view: $87.2k is the line in the sand—if price closes above on increasing volume, it could test $89k. If it breaks below $83.9k, the downside targets are $82.5k–$82.8k, with a stop-loss below $83.3k. The minutes are relatively dovish, and if the price closes above $87.2k, the short thesis is invalid. Early next Thursday at 2:00 (US time), the Fed’s September meeting minutes, and Monday at 22:00 the ISM non-manufacturing PMI, are the next variables.

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