$ENA Unlock Tomorrow (10/5), Final Time to Align the Coordinates.
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The unlock is for the remaining investor tokens. They will be released all at once; the official has not disclosed the size.
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On the same day, the roughly 3.03 billion ENA held in the StablecoinX locked-term reserve is set to mature. But selling requires first obtaining written approval from the Ethena Foundation, which also has a right of first purchase.
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Price moved first: this week ENA fell from 0.272 to 0.239, down about 12%. It’s one of the biggest decliners among the top 40 by Binance spot trading volume; the low on 10/2 was 0.2279.
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On the fundamentals side: USDe’s size over the past 30 days has grown by about 16%, reaching $4.9 billion.
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Levels: 0.2279 (the low on 10/2) is the first line; below that, watch 0.2036 (the low on 9/22). Overhead resistance is at 0.2521 (the high on 10/2) and 0.265.
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Scenario one: if 0.2279 is held on unlock day, it suggests the sell pressure has been absorbed in advance. Scenario two: if it breaks 0.2279 on high volume, it suggests the unlocked supply is still being sold.
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Volatility is likely high on unlock day, and leverage will first come down.