Sunday morning digestion. As of 2026-10-04 08:15 JST. The US market has closed for Friday. Spot markets in Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong are closed, while Asian-session spot markets are not yet open.
US market close (Reuters): Dow 51176.96 +0.49%, S&P 7722.72 +0.73%, Nasdaq 27190.86 +1.19%. Weekly performance: S&P -0.27%, Dow -1.26%, Nasdaq +0.45%. The driver was September non-farm payrolls at only +29k (Reuters poll estimated around +90k). Unemployment rate was 4.2%, and the combined revisions for July–August were downward by 60k. Don’t mix signals on the probability of an October rate hike: Reuters cites the CME FedWatch at 22.7% (down from 64.2% a week earlier), while CNBC’s FedWatch is 17%. December is still the baseline scenario for a rate hike.
In the Asian session: spots are not open on Sunday. The latest Nikkei futures update was early Saturday; NQN Chicago Dec limit 69910, +1390; the big lot at 0:00 is 69950, +1300. Compared with Friday’s spot at 68309, there is still a premium. Today’s OPEC+ meeting of the seven-nation group: as of the time of this release, no decision has been made. Oil prices settled on Friday (Reuters): Brent 102.25, WTI 91.11. On the Investing sidebar: 102.72/91.26; there is also a futures table showing 98.71—different quotation standards, so don’t mix them.
BTC gave back the non-farm move over the weekend. MyTrade reference price was 84978 (10/4 02:00 UTC+8, +0.17%; range 84254–85170). The Friday high near 87200 was not held. ETF trades on 10/2 still remain the reality after settlement, and have not changed.
Mechanism: equity gains are due to the falling probability of rate hikes, not because employment is improving. The 10-year yield closed on Friday with diverging quotation conventions (roughly 5.18% to 5.28%); duration is still the constraint. Only Monday’s spot will confirm.
If the October rate-hike outlook is revised downward again, will BTC first follow risk appetite or first follow actual yields?
#Binance #BTC #Crypto #市场分析 #US Stocks
Not investment advice; trading involves risk.
US market close (Reuters): Dow 51176.96 +0.49%, S&P 7722.72 +0.73%, Nasdaq 27190.86 +1.19%. Weekly performance: S&P -0.27%, Dow -1.26%, Nasdaq +0.45%. The driver was September non-farm payrolls at only +29k (Reuters poll estimated around +90k). Unemployment rate was 4.2%, and the combined revisions for July–August were downward by 60k. Don’t mix signals on the probability of an October rate hike: Reuters cites the CME FedWatch at 22.7% (down from 64.2% a week earlier), while CNBC’s FedWatch is 17%. December is still the baseline scenario for a rate hike.
In the Asian session: spots are not open on Sunday. The latest Nikkei futures update was early Saturday; NQN Chicago Dec limit 69910, +1390; the big lot at 0:00 is 69950, +1300. Compared with Friday’s spot at 68309, there is still a premium. Today’s OPEC+ meeting of the seven-nation group: as of the time of this release, no decision has been made. Oil prices settled on Friday (Reuters): Brent 102.25, WTI 91.11. On the Investing sidebar: 102.72/91.26; there is also a futures table showing 98.71—different quotation standards, so don’t mix them.
BTC gave back the non-farm move over the weekend. MyTrade reference price was 84978 (10/4 02:00 UTC+8, +0.17%; range 84254–85170). The Friday high near 87200 was not held. ETF trades on 10/2 still remain the reality after settlement, and have not changed.
Mechanism: equity gains are due to the falling probability of rate hikes, not because employment is improving. The 10-year yield closed on Friday with diverging quotation conventions (roughly 5.18% to 5.28%); duration is still the constraint. Only Monday’s spot will confirm.
If the October rate-hike outlook is revised downward again, will BTC first follow risk appetite or first follow actual yields?
#Binance #BTC #Crypto #市场分析 #US Stocks
Not investment advice; trading involves risk.