After Non-Farm Payrolls, the probability of a Fed rate hike in October dropped from 28% to 17% (CME FedWatch).
In other words, the market thinks that at the 10/28 meeting, there is an 80%+ chance they will stay put. By year-end, the cumulative expected rate hikes fell from 25.5 basis points to about 22 basis points; a single hike in December remains the mainstream expectation.
At the same time: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has retreated from the 2024 peak of 5.34% back to around 5.18%; the Nasdaq hit a fresh intraday high on Friday, and Nvidia’s market cap reached about $5.7 trillion.
But $BTC didn’t keep up: after rising to 87,220 following the release, it was then pushed back down. Since then, it has basically gone sideways and is now around 84,900.
Stocks have benefited from the “rate-hike expectations backing off,” but crypto hasn’t yet. One possible reason: ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls, the contracts added around $500 million of open interest, so the good news first turned into position closures once it was realized.
Next Thursday at 2:00 a.m. (Beijing time), the Fed meeting minutes and the CPI on 10/14 are the next two checkpoints to watch.
In other words, the market thinks that at the 10/28 meeting, there is an 80%+ chance they will stay put. By year-end, the cumulative expected rate hikes fell from 25.5 basis points to about 22 basis points; a single hike in December remains the mainstream expectation.
At the same time: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has retreated from the 2024 peak of 5.34% back to around 5.18%; the Nasdaq hit a fresh intraday high on Friday, and Nvidia’s market cap reached about $5.7 trillion.
But $BTC didn’t keep up: after rising to 87,220 following the release, it was then pushed back down. Since then, it has basically gone sideways and is now around 84,900.
Stocks have benefited from the “rate-hike expectations backing off,” but crypto hasn’t yet. One possible reason: ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls, the contracts added around $500 million of open interest, so the good news first turned into position closures once it was realized.
Next Thursday at 2:00 a.m. (Beijing time), the Fed meeting minutes and the CPI on 10/14 are the next two checkpoints to watch.