Suddenly, at the negotiation table over the Ukraine issue, China and Russia added a new oil deal—one also tied to people in Trump’s circle. It sounds like a diplomatic headline, but the real signal is embedded in how crude oil and gold are being priced.
$CL is now at 91.12, barely moved in the past 24 hours, down only 0.36%. The market hasn’t really “priced in” this variable yet. The logic is simple: if this deal implies there could be a loosening of sanctions on Russian energy, then the crude supply side would gain an additional expectation, putting real downward pressure on $CL . The market will have to watch the 90 integer level closely. But on the other hand, if the negotiations collapse and sanctions end up tightening, it’s not impossible for oil prices to surge toward 95. For now, the market is stuck in the middle, waiting to see which direction it will take.
$XAU is at 4144.77, down just 0.06% over the last 24 hours—basically flat. Gold is even more subtle. If expectations for geopolitical easing warm up, safe-haven demand will cool off, and 4100 could act as short-term support. But if the talks break down and safe-haven funds return, it wouldn’t be surprising for $XAU to climb back above 4180.
Direction call: in the short term, $CL is bearish and $XAU is likely to trade weakly with a range. The premise is that the market starts seriously pricing in the scenario of “the deal is likely.” The truly critical levels aren’t on the trading screen—they’re at the negotiating table.
#Gold
$CL is now at 91.12, barely moved in the past 24 hours, down only 0.36%. The market hasn’t really “priced in” this variable yet. The logic is simple: if this deal implies there could be a loosening of sanctions on Russian energy, then the crude supply side would gain an additional expectation, putting real downward pressure on $CL . The market will have to watch the 90 integer level closely. But on the other hand, if the negotiations collapse and sanctions end up tightening, it’s not impossible for oil prices to surge toward 95. For now, the market is stuck in the middle, waiting to see which direction it will take.
$XAU is at 4144.77, down just 0.06% over the last 24 hours—basically flat. Gold is even more subtle. If expectations for geopolitical easing warm up, safe-haven demand will cool off, and 4100 could act as short-term support. But if the talks break down and safe-haven funds return, it wouldn’t be surprising for $XAU to climb back above 4180.
Direction call: in the short term, $CL is bearish and $XAU is likely to trade weakly with a range. The premise is that the market starts seriously pricing in the scenario of “the deal is likely.” The truly critical levels aren’t on the trading screen—they’re at the negotiating table.
#Gold