#ZcashETFPostsFirstWeeklyOutflow$93.6M
Fed: chances of a rate hike in October fall to 17%.
What changed: September NFP at +29K (expected +90K). Unemployment at 4.2%. Negative revisions of 60K.
A few days ago, the odds were above 70% due to fear of inflation being driven by oil.
The macro chain turned:
Weak jobs → less chance of a hike → less pressure on yields → better conditions for risk assets.
Impact:
QQQ — tech eases if rates stop rising.
BTC — liquidity-sensitive assets benefit.
XAU— gold gains if yields and the dollar weaken.
TLT — bonds benefit directly.
But a "pause" is not a "pivot." The Fed still says inflation is high. A hike in December is still possible, depending on the CPI.
The trade now:
Pause in October: on.
Uncertainty in December: alive.
$QQQ $BTC $XAU
#fedoctoberratehikeoddsfallto17% #GreekPoliceBustCryptoScamRingArrest17 #BitcoinRejectedAt$87K
Fed: chances of a rate hike in October fall to 17%.
What changed: September NFP at +29K (expected +90K). Unemployment at 4.2%. Negative revisions of 60K.
A few days ago, the odds were above 70% due to fear of inflation being driven by oil.
The macro chain turned:
Weak jobs → less chance of a hike → less pressure on yields → better conditions for risk assets.
Impact:
QQQ — tech eases if rates stop rising.
BTC — liquidity-sensitive assets benefit.
XAU— gold gains if yields and the dollar weaken.
TLT — bonds benefit directly.
But a "pause" is not a "pivot." The Fed still says inflation is high. A hike in December is still possible, depending on the CPI.
The trade now:
Pause in October: on.
Uncertainty in December: alive.
$QQQ $BTC $XAU
#fedoctoberratehikeoddsfallto17% #GreekPoliceBustCryptoScamRingArrest17 #BitcoinRejectedAt$87K
